Afghanistan at a crossroads (Taliban and US racing ahead for an agreement)

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 Afghanistan at a crossroads (Taliban and US racing ahead for an agreement)

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• End the conflict : There is a sudden surge in activity at global and regional levels to try and end the conflict in Afghanistan. The ambitious US negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad is pushing a "retreat for US" agenda that President Trump supports. Afghans fear that the Taliban will overthrow the State once US withdraws, and an overconfident Pakistan plays its game.
• Major issues involved : Causes of Afghan conflict are religious, ethnic and external in nature. What should Afghanistan be as a nation - Pashtun-dominated or a pluralistic state? Should it be an Islamic emirate or a constitutional republic? Can it be a puppet state of Pakistan?
• Since 1994 : The Taliban has only one goal since 1994 – to establish a purely Islamic government. They are ideologically driven, not nationalistic by nature. US presence harms their goal, and Pakistan gives them full support.
• Earlier peacemaking efforts : Since 1979 when the conflicts started, many efforts at democratic power-sharing have failed.

1. The leftist Najibullah govt. tried and failed
2. The Mujahideen-led govt. of Burhanuddin Rabbani failed
3. West-installed govts. of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani tried and did not succeed.

• The US has been a party to this since 1979 itself, as it supported the Mujahideen via Pakistan (Operation Cyclone).
• Driven by instinct not deep thinking : The US is acting on a tactical, selfish basis that will deeply harm the Afghanistan interests in the long run. As on date, there is no conducive situation for peace talks, but it is pushing.
• Taliban's staying power : Supported by Pak, the Taliban are willing to stay on for long, and exhaust the enemy (the State). The 2019 Presidential elections in July are approaching, just as US is desperately trying to extricate itself.
• US and Taliban : They are talking to each other, and ignoring the Afghan state and its people. It will never be a peace treaty. The Afghan state is not as weak as it was in the 1990s, and majority Afghans hate the Taliban and Pakistan.
• School of Jihad : The Taliban believes that Afghanistan is the school of Jihad for jihadists worldwide. So, violent Islamist groups everywhere would be helped by all this. The West is naive in thinking otherwise.
• Trilateral agreement not acceptable : The agreement between US, Pakistan and Taliban's Quetta Shura is unacceptable. India should push for inclusivity and realism, as well as Afghan ownership.
• A peaceful Afghanistan : Citizens want a peaceful, pluralistic and prosperous nation. Any imposed peace will fall apart, and bring long-term suffering. 
• Summary : The US is trying to broker peace with the Taliban in Afghanistan, in what will be a disaster as the State and people do not accept any such discussions.

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