A demographic window of opportunity (Investing in laggard states will be a boon for the future)

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 A demographic window of opportunity (Investing in laggard states will be a boon for the future)

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment


    • World Population Prospects report 2019 : The 26th revision on WPP indicated that India will overtake China by 2027, as the most populous nation in the world. Everyone knew it, only the year has changed (was 2022, is now 2027). Being the most populous is India's destiny in 21st century. [ CONCEPT - WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS - UN REPORT 2019 ]
    • How are such estimates made : Pop. projections use existing population numbers, and adjust them for expected births, deaths and migration. Biggest, immediate, short-term impact is always due to females in childbearing ages (15 to 39) - that number is 25.3 cr for India, and 23.5 cr for China. So we WILL overtake them now.
    • Revision in projections : UN report now says that India will overtake China in 2027 (not 2022), and by 2050 India will be at 163 cr (not 170 cr). Why? India's fertility rate has declined dramatically - a good news!
    • Three critical issues :
      1. Population control policy - Can India make a law, and implement it ruthlessly like China? All democratic actions have been taken already - (a) restriction of maternity benefits post 2 kids, (b) disqualifiation for panchayat elections (in some states), etc. But those who want bigger families, will have it.
      2. Fertility rates vary - The poorest women have a TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of 3.2 but the richest have a TFR of 1.6. Western societies have more women working, and hence low kids. Not so in India at all. Here the cost of providing the best to each kid is forcing people to reproduce less. If proper contraceptive services are provided, the virtuous cycle would be complete.
      3. Regional imbalance is heavy - North and Central India are growing faster. Earlier, India used the 1971 population figures to allocate Lok Sabha seats, to punish states that failed to control population growth. But the 15th Finance Commission dumped it, and is using 2011 Census figures. Southern states are naturally upset - Kerala grew by 56% from 1971 to 2011, while UP grew by 140%.
    • Times have changed : We cannot remain stuck with 1971, naturally. Centre-state transfers is only one way of cross-subsidising. Migrant workers in one state may generate taxes, that Centre uses to subsidise others.
    • Demographic dividend (DD) window : When working age adults increase in a society, we have DD. Child dependency ratio falls, and old age dependency too is low. But this is a temporary phase of 20 to 30 years. For Kerala and TN, this window is over. For Karnataka, J&K and Haryana, it will be open for 20 years. Then it will open for UP, Bihar, and others (last to enter fertility transition). So by 2035, Bihar will be supporting the old population of Kerala!
    • What to do : The right policy is to invest heavily in education and health of states that are still to experience the DD window. So the 15th FC may actually be doing something good by using the 2011 numbers - it is an investment for the future!
    • Summary : Being the most populous nation is India's destiny, and cannot be changed - what can be changed is its approach to nurturing the demographic dividend of late arriving states.
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                                                                                                                                                  PT's IAS Academy: A demographic window of opportunity (Investing in laggard states will be a boon for the future)
                                                                                                                                                  A demographic window of opportunity (Investing in laggard states will be a boon for the future)
                                                                                                                                                  Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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