2018 Assembly polls: the semi-finals for 2019?(Analysis of election outcomes)

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2018 Assembly polls: the semi-finals for 2019?(Analysis of election outcomes)

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• YES :
  
  1. Semi finals: The assembly elections in CG, MP, Raj, Mizoram and Telangana are the semi-finals. In 3 states, the INC and BJP are contesting head-on, and each new seat for INC is a plus for 2019 LS elections.
  2. Cannot better it: Since BJP holds 10/11 seats in CG, 25/25 in Raj and 27/29 in MP, it can only lose, not win more.
  3. A test for anti-incumbency: Across the 5 states, it can play out well. The key question will be whether local issues of governance overcome national emotive issues or not?
  4. Presidential-style contest: PM Modi will want a direct one-to-one Presidential type of election battle. But battles fought on local issues will blunt that strategy.
  5. Power of local alliances: In Telangana, the INC + TDP + TJS alliance can upset KCR’s early election ploy. INC could not ally with BSP in Chhattisgarh, but if her voters see that BSP + Ajit Jogi end up helping the BJP, they may switch.
  6. Enough ferment: Played well, there is enough ammunition to turn 2019 into the right battle.

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• NO:
  
  1. These are not the Semi finals: The assembly elections in CG, MP, Raj, Mizoram and Telangana are unique political contests, not representative of the diverse political competition found elsewhere in India.
  2. LS 2019 will be 29 different voter assertions: Each state will witness its own combination of factors. To create overarching generalisations is not proper.
  3. Bypoll results: What we saw in Telangana is not an indicator of what might happen in the upcoming Assembly elections, or the LS 2019 elections.
  4. Few months can mean a lot: New issues may popup suddenly, and old ones may vanish. BJP did well in Assembly elections 2003 and failed in the LS elections 2004.
  5. Semi-final victories can be Final’s defeat: Just like in sport, it is pointless to extrapolate victories or defeats in semi-finals.

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• MAYBE :

1. Semi finals : The semi-finals are actually a trailer for the final 2019 LS movie. 
2. The Hindi heartland : The BJP won 63 / 83 seats in these 5 states in 2014. Any major losses in these (in LS) will mean big overall loss for the BJP. Of the total Hindi heartland, the BJP + allies won 203 of 225 seats. 
3. A big failure in Assembly elections will be an indicator : It will indicate a loss of enthusiasm for BJP. 
4. Headwind and Tailwind : If the BJP wins the states, opposition parties will face a big headwind. Contrarywise, BJP’s loss will mean strong tailwinds for opposition. 
5. More election funds : Winning one or more large state assembly elections will mean more funds for opposition parties. 
6. Media correction : The totally polarised media will also start correcting itself, and some balance will appear. That may still not be enough, but at least a less unfair battle will emerge in 2019 LS elections.

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