Trial by voters (Tamil Nadu MLA defection case 2018)

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Trial by voters (Tamil Nadu MLA defection case 2018)

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  • Disqualification of MLAs upheld: The Madras High Court upheld the disqualification of 18 MLAs of AIADMK who had defected. So fresh elections (byelections) are needed on these seats. CONCEPT
  • Post Jayalalitha: After her death, there was a struggle for leadership inside AIADMK, and Palaniswami won the battle, and is the CM today.
  • Catch 22 situation: For the present Tamil Nadu government, whether the 18 MLAs who defected were disqualified (by the Courts) or not, it would not be a rosy outcome.
  • What is the problem? If the Courts would have rejected the disqualification of these 18 MLAs, then the govt. would have fallen immediately (it would be in a minority in assembly as those 18 would join opposition camp). But if the courts disqualified them (they did), then fresh elections are needed - a tough call for the AIADMK party running the govt.!
  • Fresh elections: All 18 seats will go to polls now, and 2 more (deaths of sitting MLAs). AIADMK has 116 members including the Speaker, and needs minimum 2 wins to retain majority. 4 AIADMK MLAs are angry with govt. so it may need to win 2 + 4 = 6 seats.
  • What if a stay is sought? If the 18 MLAs get a stay, then the AIADMK govt. would get more time in power without facing elections.
  • Threat for both leaders: These byelections will test not only AIADMK but also M K Stalin of DMK, as the results will either cement or break their leadership strength perception.
  • Almost like a general election: The results of the byelections will significantly affect the 2019 poll results also.
  • Summary - Tamil politics will see a major reset in the months to come, the first major settling down after the death of the two big stars - Jayalalitha and M Karunanidhi.
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PT's IAS Academy: Trial by voters (Tamil Nadu MLA defection case 2018)
Trial by voters (Tamil Nadu MLA defection case 2018)
Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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