L’affaire Khashoggi (Murder of a journalist by Saudis inside Turkey)

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L’affaire Khashoggi (Murder of a journalist by Saudis inside Turkey)

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• Gory and gruesome: The bloody details about the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi are coming out in Turkish media (state-controlled), proving that pen is mightier than the sword.
• Authoritarian regimes: They do not bother about acts of violence. Brutality is their hallmark. Any opponent is branded a terrorist, and killed (or simply vanishes).
• Fear of the authoritarian regimes: The written word scares them more than anything else. Khashoggi was once close to the rulers in Saudi Arabia, and had welcomed some reforms by MbS (Mohammed bin Salman) like allowing women to drive (without male members) etc.
• A clear message: All dissidents have been sent a clear message - do not make trouble.
• A defiant Saudi Arabia: The regime has warned other nations that sanctions on KSA will have bad consequences. Token action by global bodies is on – IMF boss cancelled her presence at "Davos in the Desert“  conference, in Riyadh. Even as many developed nations scream murder, not many developing nations are shouting, though.
• What is foreign policy? The pursuit of national interest is foreign policy, and Donald Trump shows that in full bloom. He has openly said that he cannot jeopardise arms sales worth billions (to Saudis).
• Fall guys: The Saudis (and maybe Americans) will try to save the top levels of monarchy, and fall guys will be found.
• India in all this: The principle of national interest has held India back from openly confronting the Saudis and Iranians about their support to radical Sunni and Shia mosques in India. No government till date (in many decades) found the strength to oppose this action, which amounts to radicalising local Muslims. Indian energy interests (dependence on West Asia) and fear of their voting against us in OIC held us back.
• Lessons for India: If we need their oil, they need us to buy it. They need to sell more oil to fund their adventure gone bad in Yemen. But the reform plans of MbS will need more and more money.
• If we stop buying Iranian oil, then? Then the Saudis will make up for it - they need to sell, and it will weaken their mortal enemy Iran (leader of the world's Shias). Saudis may befriend India to that extent.
• India, the huge arms' buyer: Since we buy so much, many nations (US, Russia, France) have a great selfish interest to work with us - they'll be able to sell expensive weaponry. It is a big, big advantage - even Trump will hesitate to impose penalties on India if we refuse to toe his line on Iran or Russia.
• US Congress will act finally: The higher principles of democracy will force the Congress to take a decision, and the President will be forced to follow it. That would be the voice of the people trumping narrow national interests (commercial). CONCEPT
• Summary : The Khashoggi case will force all nations to evaluate their national interests, and take action accordingly.

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