Idlib, the final frontier (Syrian civil war – last phase)

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Idlib, the final frontier (Syrian civil war – last phase)

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• The agreement: 

1. On 17th Sept the Russian and the Turkish PM signed an agreement preventing an all out attack on Idlib, the last major area held by the anti-government militants in Syria. 
2. Russia and Turkey will establish a demilitarised zone along the line of contact between Idlib’s militants and regime forces. 
3. This averts a major humanitarian crisis and shows the increasing uneasiness in Russia about Syria.

• The current situation: 

1. The regime of Bashar-Al-Assad has won the civil wars and has major population centres (Aleppo, Daraa and Eastern Ghouta) under its control. 
2. There are 3 areas outside its control –  Idlib, the Kurdistan area and border towns such as Afrin. 
3. There are political problems in attacking these areas due to external political influences at work.

• The Turkey factor: So far Russia has fully backed Assad's regime and was crucial in the regime's wins but Idlib presents a few problems. 

1. At present Idlib has some three million residents, half of them internally displaced people. Turkey already has 3.5 million of Syrian refugees, and fears that an all-out assault on Idlib will trigger another massive refugee flow as Turkey shares a border with Idlib. 
2. Idlib has a sizeable number of jihadists. Turkey fears that an all-out attack could disperse them, prompting some of them to cross the border into Turkish land, posing new security challenges. 
3. Russia wants Assad to win but is aware that a conflict in Idlib would be very brutal. In addition to obstructing Syria's efforts at reconstruction with help from the Western countries, it would also jeopardise its ties with Turkey
4. Russia has cultivated good ties with both Iran and Israel. A growing partnership with Turkey is vital for its force projection in the region as a hostile Turkey can shut Russia’s access to Bosporus and harm its Mediterranean strategy.

• The future: Though an allout attack on Idlib has been averted, it has not solved the crisis. Assad's plan is to attack all militant groups, including HTS and the Turkey supported rebels, and retake the province of Idlib. Turkey proposes using nonviolent tactics to draw HTS fighters away from its organisational fold and also empower non-HTS rebels to take on the jihadists. Turkey has to prompt rebels to withdraw heavy weapons from the proposed DMZ and come up with a road map to defeat HTS inside the province. Else, Russia may attack Idlib.
• Summary : The Putin-Erdogan deal may have postponed a battle, but the war is far from over.

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