2+2 is less than the sum of it parts? (US-India relationship)

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2+2 is less than the sum of it parts? (US-India relationship)

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• Why does the US deploy the “2+2” format? India has not traditionally used this format at all, where the foreign and defence ministers engage with the other nation. But this is a chosen weapon of choice for the US whenever it wants to align the military, strategic and diplomatic sides of the other nation with its own worldview.
• What came out of the 2+2 Dialogue? Given the high expectations, not much. But it seems the US has been able to draw India into its framework built to contain China. Will India like to play that role in 21st century?
• COMCASA was signed: No doubt, the signing of Communications, Compatibility and Security Arrangement (COMCASA) will help India purchase the best US military hardware, and enhance military inter-operability.
• Four foundational agreements: US says to have a foolproof security relationship, India needs to sign all 4; we’ve done 3 so far.   CONCEPT

1. GSOMIA: The General Security of Military Information Agreement – signed 2002
2. LEMOA: The Logistic Exchange Memorandum of Agreement – signed 2016
3. COMCASA: Signed 2018.
4. BECA: Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation – Not signed so far.

• As COMCASA comes of age: Slowly, as we start using their equipments and encrypted communications, the US may simply drag us along into conflicts not of our choosing. India wants the advanced platforms like Weaponised Sea Guardian (high-altitude long-endurance drone) and Armed Predator B.
• India an MDP, and an independent voice: To sweeten the deal for India, the US upgraded India’s relationship status to a “Major Defence Partner” and said India is an independent stakeholder in world affairs.
• What about Indian relationship with Russia and Iran? It is not clear what happens in the future with Russia, though for now, India can go ahead with the S-400 Triumf deal. The CAATSA waiver will work now. But with Iran, there is no sign of any relaxation.

• What happens now, post COMCASA?

1. US reinforces its position as top weapons supplier to India, displacing Russia
2. Russia will not be happy, as it had been committed to India all along
3. Today, US is seen as a ‘declining power’, and this is not 1991 (USSR collapse, US only pole left)
4. Today is post-cold war, & China is the second biggest power, Europe is declining, Russia may be rising
5. Despite “America First” etc., US has not been able to rein in China in South and East China seas

• So should we be doing this? Given all this, India should be cautious about being called a “US acolyte”.
• A big change in strategy: Through the decades gone by, India has worked on strategic autonomy. But by presenting China as an imminent threat, the US got India into these deals. Pakistan’s renewed nuclear threats are real, and China’s imminent threats are not so menacing. We should be very careful.
• Summary : How much will India gain from the US COMCASA deal remains a matter of debate, and the worst that can happen is the loss of our own strategic autonomy.

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