A detailed look into the present status of the Iran US JCPOA.
SHARE:
- The story: The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015. The deal came together after two years of intense discussions and aimed to restrict Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting economic sanctions against Tehran.
- What was in it: As part of the deal, Iran agreed to reduce its number of centrifuges - tube-shaped machines that help enrich uranium - by two-thirds. It also agreed to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98% and limit uranium enrichment to 3.67%. Iran agreed to restrictions that would allow it to have enough enriched uranium to maintain the country's energy needs, without having the ability to build a nuclear bomb. It also agreed to give access to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog agency, to its nuclear facilities, among other facilities. In January 2016, when the IAEA declared Iran was living up to its end of the bargain, all nuclear-related international sanctions against Iran were lifted.
- Why support it: Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.
- The participants: The five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) plus Germany, collectively known as the P5+1, were at the core of discussions with Iran. The European Union was also present. Some Middle Eastern governments and Iran's regional competitors, such as Saudi Arabia, argued they should have been engaged or included in the talks because they would be the most affected by a nuclear-armed Iran, and asked the US to consult Gulf states in any future efforts to resurrect the deal. Israel, too, has expressed its displeasure with the arrangement, calling it too lenient.
- Controversy: For decades, Iran and the United States have been adversaries. The two countries have a complicated history that includes a CIA-backed coup in the 1950s, a pro-American puppet monarch who was deposed in 1979 in the aftermath of the Islamic revolution, and the infamous hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran. Iranian leaders' constant threats against Israel, America's most important ally in the Middle East, and chants of "death to America" in Iranian streets have further exacerbated the matters.
- There is mistrust of Iran in the United States (and vice versa), and Washington has long been concerned about what would happen if the Iranian regime developed a nuclear weapon. But Iran had made significant progress in this area by the 2010s, which explains the Obama administration's efforts to orchestrate the nuclear deal.
- When the pact was signed in 2015, it was hailed as a significant diplomatic achievement. However, many (mostly conservative) leaders in Washington believed the Iran nuclear deal did not go far enough to limit the country's ability to develop nuclear weapons.
- This is due to the Iran deal's sunset clauses, or parts of the agreement that will eventually expire. The restrictions on Iran's centrifuges will be lifted after ten years (in 2025), and the restrictions on uranium enrichment will expire five years later (2030).
- Trump arrives: As a result, some feared that once these restrictions were lifted, Iran would be able to rapidly develop a nuclear weapon. In general, former US President Donald Trump, among others, argued that the agreement did not go far enough to address Iran's regional behaviour or missile programme. Simultaneously, the US faced pressure from its top allies in the region to avoid engaging with Iran.
- Eventually, the deal has been in jeopardy since Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018.
- This, coupled with deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one drone strike by the United States, killed Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani, led to Tehran effectively abandoning the JCPOA altogether.
- Iran's non-compliance after 2018: Before Trump's decision to withdraw from the deal and for a long period after, the IAEA repeatedly found Iran to be complying with the terms of the pact. However, by November 2020, the UN's nuclear watchdog said Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium was more than 12 times the limit set under the JCPOA. Iran gradually took more steps in violation of the pact since the summer of 2019, as part of an effort to increase pressure on European leaders fighting to save the deal. Iranian authorities confirmed that Iran had produced 55 kg of uranium enriched up to 20% - well above the limits under the 2015 deal and closer to weapons-grade levels (roughly 90%).
- Biden's arrival: Since coming to power, President Biden has pledged to try and revive the deal. Several rounds of talks were held in Vienna earlier this year and they are due to resume later this month. Ahead of that, U.S. officials met their counterparts in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries this week in Riyadh to discuss Iran and other issues. A joint statement from the U.S. GCC Iran Working Group, issued on November 17, noted the proliferation and use of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones and said Iran’s nuclear program "is of grave concern". In light of that, they called for "an urgent mutual return to full compliance with the JCPOA".
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain why the Iran nuclear deal, despite being a promising one, failed to take off. (2) What was Israel's role in the collapse of the JCPOA? Explain.(3) What are the options for the Iranian regime, if the JCPOA fails to re-materialise?
* Content sourced from free internet sources (publications, PIB site, international sites, etc.). Take your own subscriptions. Copyrights acknowledged.
COMMENTS