An assessment of India-Russia relationship in light of Russia's complexities with the West
India, Russia and the West - an analysis
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- The story: In the decades gone by, India's strategic enthusiasm for USSR / Russia was shaped by India’s difficulties with the West. But if a reconciliation were to happen between Russia and the West, it will make help India manage its own security challenges.
- 1991: In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed — after seven decades of an expansive global role. The breakup of the Soviet Union put an end to the global power structure that emerged after the Second World War. The disappearance of the Soviet Union was an international shock like none other to the Indian political classes as well as the national security establishment.
- Few countries have been as significant as Russia for modern India’s evolution.
- The 1917 Revolution, the Soviet model of economic development, and Russian geopolitics had a profound impact on 20th century India’s worldview.
- The twists and turns in Russia’s relations with the West have always had consequences for India’s international relations.
- The Great Game of the 19th century between the British Raj and imperial Russia, the Soviet support for revolutionary movements in Asia, the Russian role in World War II, Moscow’s extended Cold War with the West, and post-Soviet Russia’s turbulent ties with the US and Europe have all deeply influenced India’s national choices.
- As Russia and the West begin a new dialogue on European security in 2021-22, India is deeply invested in a positive reorientation of Moscow’s ties with the West. The rise of China and the consequent geopolitical churn in Asia, have raised India’s stakes in US-Russia relations.
- A new world: The loss of the long-standing Soviet ally left Delhi in a deep strategic funk amidst fears of a unipolar world dominated by the US. These anxieties were accentuated by post-Soviet Russia’s quick embrace of the US and the West. That did not last long. By the turn of the millennium, relations between Russia and the West had begun to sour. That drew India once again closer to Russia. Moscow also roped in Beijing to build a new coalition — the RIC — to promote a multipolar world that would limit the dangers of American hyperpower. India’s fears of the unipolar moment turned out to be overblown and Delhi’s ties with Washington began to see rapid improvement since 2000.
- India and America: The upswing in India’s ties with America coincided with a steady downturn in the relations between Russia and the US. This began to complicate India’s great power politics. One problem has been the prospects for US sanctions on India triggered by the purchase of advanced Russian weapons like the S-400 missiles.
- The continuous escalation of tensions between Russia and the West culminated in the last few weeks in Ukraine — at the heart of Europe.
- Moscow’s military mobilisation on the frontier with Ukraine — that was part of the Soviet Union until 1991 — raised alarm bells of a new war between the forces of Russia and the US-led European military alliance, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
- The US and Russian presidents, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, have been in touch to defuse the crisis. While warning Russia that the costs of its military attack on Ukraine would be severe, Biden has offered to address Putin’s concerns. Russia and the West are now expected to launch a new dialogue on European security in the coming days.
- Time for resolution: In December 2021, Russia presented several proposals for a new European security architecture. Moscow is calling for an end to NATO’s further eastward expansion. Moscow also wants NATO to rescind its earlier promise to make Ukraine and Georgia — two former Soviet Republics — members of the military alliance. Russia is also proposing an agreement on reducing provocative military activity on its borders. It also wants to work out new arms control and military confidence-building measures in Europe. While the expert reaction in the West has been dismissive of Russian proposals, US and EU now see the Russian framework as an opening gambit in the inevitably tough negotiations on European security.
- While Russia has demonstrated that its interests can’t be simply ignored by the West, it also recognises the costs of a prolonged confrontation with the US and Europe and the dangers of relying solely on China to secure its geopolitical interests. While Moscow is unlikely to abandon the partnership with China, there is no doubt that an accommodation with America and Europe is a high priority for Russia.
- While coping with the complex dynamic of Russia’s relations with the West has been an enduring element of independent India’s foreign policy, India’s thinking on Russia has too often been coloured by ideological sentiment. While ideology has been important for both the Soviet Union and post-Soviet Russia, Moscow’s international policies have been driven more by national interest and geopolitics.
- Historically speaking: Prior to the 1917 revolution, Russia was a leading part of the European great power system. If its alliance with the West forged against Nazi Germany had endured, Communist Russia would have remained part of the global order in the second half of the 20th century. The collapse of the Soviet Union offered a second (missed) opportunity to re-integrate Russia into Europe. India today knows that stabilising the Asian balance of power will be difficult without a measure of US-Russian cooperation in Europe. If Moscow — at odds with the West in the last two decades — deepens its current close alignment with Beijing, it will be a lot harder to prevent Chinese dominance over Asia.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the complexities in India's managing its ties with Russia, in light of Russia's relations with the West. (2) What are the ways India can rebuild a stronger relation with Russia now, given the latest tension in Eurasia?
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