Living in uncertain times

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Living in uncertain times

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• A world in bewilderment: In a rare condition, today people and nations worldwide are experiencing confusion, extreme euphoria, anger, and fear. Many do not even want to think of “tomorrow”. 
• Disruption, and consequent violence: Due to disruptions, violence has increased across domains. Of all, technology has disrupted the most – startups challenging giants, and AI challenging entire models.
• No longer the “Axis of Evil”: What the US would call a part of the Axis of Evil, is now a target for total denuclearisation, and photo-op! All this was done by Trump without any diplomatic rigmarole.
• Other conflict points: 

1. Putin’s Russia is up against nearly entire West (nerve gas attacks!) 
2. Afghanistan is on the brink of collapse (Taliban, TTP, IS Khorasan) 
3. Syria is no state now – continuous war has devastated it 
4. Iran versus Saudi Arabia is turning dangerous; the Yemen war is unending 
5. Tiny nations are being prodded to challenge bigger ones (Maldives – India) 
6. The stable Germany is suddenly unstable due to coalition problems on immigration 
7. France, and much of southern Europe, are witnessing a fluid situation

• Dictatorships versus Democracies: Most dictatorships appear stable for now, even as democracies witness the governments and opposition working at cross-purposes to each other. China’s targets are seemingly achievable – (a) Wiping out poverty by 2021 (Party’s 100 years), (b) Made in China by 2025 (High tech areas), (c) Making China a developed nation by 2049 (100 years of PRC).
• Russia and Turkey: Since Russia is now aligned with China, and its economy is on the mend, it has weathered the storm. Turkey is in turmoil, but Erdogan is holding it together.
• Parties in democracies: Sadly, many political parties are hit by internal dissent, across the UK and USA. In India, the BJP remains strong while others exhibit weaknesses. But despite that, the paralysis of informed debate is dangerous! Parliament isn’t debating, and that’s a deficit.
• Foreign policy: Broad consensus existed always. Today, it’s almost broken down. Nation cannot know the truth as Parliament doesn’t debate. Why is the US suddenly against us? Despite Wuhan, why is China not resolving Dokalam, and instead pushing neighbours against us?
• Turning transactional: If our foreign policy has become so, we need to debate it in the Parliament.
• Summary : The most important cohesion needed today is that of the Government and opposition in India, as times are more uncertain than ever.

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