Is India’s foreign policy adrift?

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 Is India’s foreign policy adrift?

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• FIRST PERSPECTIVE: YES. 

1. Spoiled the equilibrium : The NDA govt. has spoiled the Indian policy of maintaining an equilibrium with big powers (US, China, Russia, EU, ASEAN) as India needs all.
2. Reckless adventurism in neighbourhood : This = Loss of eminent position in South Asia. Entire region is bending towards China, and in Afghanistan we are a non-player now. 
3. NAM over? India lost out as we gave up on NAM, starting 2016. That position as leader of the newly free and liberated nations was earned starting the decade of 1950s. We have given that up. 
4. Nothing to show for US : Not one big, positive development on the US relationship front happened. Obama criticised us in India for fundamental freedoms.
5. Trumped : India was the 40th nation to be called to meet Donald Trump, and it’s clear he is intent on destroying the post-WW II world order, and India doesn’t suit him. Signals are visible. 
6. Nuances missed : With both Russia and China, nuance has been missed in the relationship. 
7. Worst? Pakistan – from sublime to ridiculous, Nepal – lost to China (blockade), Sri Lanka – lost to China (Hambantota), belittled by both Maldives and Seychelles.

• SECOND PERSPECTIVE: NO. 

1. India more respected now : Thanks to Modi’s charismatic personality and being Diplomat No.1, the stature of India has grown a lot. Taboos are broken – with Japan, Israel and the US. 
2. Bureaucratic no more : Earlier we were cautious and bureaucratic. Now we are aiming to be a net provider of security and prosperity. Indian govt. is truly living upto the expectations of Indians. 
3. Reactive to Proactive : Modi is proactive and flexible, while earlier we were reactive and rigid. His 55 nations tours galvanised everyone! Showing up is half the battle won. India is omnipresent. 
4. Cultural and Commercial diplomacy : Indian diaspora has become a force multiplier. He has tapped into the ancient Hindu and Buddhist civilisational linkages. NAM anyway is obsolete. 
5. Huge FDI and economic progress : All this has resulted in tangible benefits. 
6. Working towards greatness : India will be the third power centre in the world, after US and China.

• THIRD PERSPECTIVE : MAYBE.

1. Challenges are unique : The NDA govt. is facing a unique combination of diplomatic, security and strategic challenges. We had a growing relationship with the US, which Trump has shocked by his transactional nature. US doesn’t care really anymore, it would seem.
2. Russia going with China : This long term friend is aligning more with China, and now also supplies choppers to Pakistan, thinks it is working against terror, and helps its Afghan stand!
3. The problem of China’s scale : With a GDP that’s 5X India’s, and military expenditure that’s 3X, China’s global footprints outguns India’s. Pakistan is useful to US in Afghanistan, and to China in regional pursuits. Other smaller nations are using India as a card with China!
4. UNSC and NSG : Despite the best of efforts, India is unable to make needed breakthroughs in these areas. 
5. Is this all new? India faced a huge negativity from the US and UK for staying away from military blocs in 1950s and 60s. Similarly, 1990s brought new challenges as well. We managed.
6. Positives? US recognises the value of Indian relationship. Europe too does. India is working very hard on the ASEAN region. Relations with gulf nations (KSA and UAE) are excellent. Iran is not bad.
7. Mixed picture : So we have sui generis challenges which need adaptation. We need to internally grow strong on both economic and defence fronts.

• Summary : The question is – Is the Indian foreign policy adrift?

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