CHINA’S POPULATION POLICY – OVERVIEW

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 CHINA’S POPULATION POLICY – OVERVIEW

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• The story: For 40 odd years, China’s government had ensured that “one child is enough” for married couples. That had some consequences, most striking being that a whole generation grew up with no immediate siblings.
• China's economic growth story: Deng Hsiaoping launched the mega economic reforms in 1979, bringing crores of rural labourers into the factories that were gradually opened up in cities, starting with coastal SEZs. Over the decades, China turned into a manufacturing juggernaut, fuelled by cheap rural labour (who never made the headlines!). The steady supply of young people was a key part of its success story.
• Social change: Encouraged by decades of governmental indoctrination, Chinese parents often feel that a family’s resources are best devoted to one child. The high cost of housing and education, the burden of caring for elderly parents, as well as crushingly long work hours also deter young couples from having more babies, or from reproducing at all. As more women pursue careers, many are delaying marriage and motherhood. These are strong social changes.
• Demographic trouble: By 2010, it was clear that there were far fewer kids being born, than were needed in the labour supply. So in 2016, the government allowed parents to have a second kid. Then in May 2021, the ruling Politburo declared that a further relaxation of birth-control regulations would help China to achieve its goal of “coping” with a rapidly ageing population, a pressing task. It called for a three-child policy. Very few parents will be happy with this new idea.
• Fertility rate: China's fears of rising population growth are all over now. Today's fertility rate - the number of children an average woman is likely to have during her lifetime - is just 1.3, among the lowest in the world. Latest census data released in May 2021 showed that only 12m babies were born in 2020, a drop of almost 20% from 2019. It was China’s lowest population growth since the 1960s, when the country was reeling from a famine. The population now looks likely to peak in the next few years—almost a decade sooner than thought earlier.
• Young don't want more kids: The new policy will not end young people’s growing disdain for baby-making. Online reactions are proof - “Do they not yet know that most young people are exhausted just supporting themselves?” said one netizen on Weibo, a Twitter-like site. “This policy is totally out of touch with the people,” wrote another. Netizens gave a twist to the idiom "minbuliaosheng" which means “people have no means of livelihood”. 
• Some would like it: For parents who do wish to have a third child, the change of policy will be a relief. Illicit births can incur a large fine or, in the case of civil servants, result in dismissal. But now the government is moving very decisively to a pro-fertility policy, and all limits may soon be scrapped altogether.

1. That would be a blessing for those who crave large families. But any impact on the overall birth rate is unlikely to be a lasting one. 
2. When China loosened its one-child policy, it hoped for a baby boom. After a brief initial uptick, however, births drifted downwards again. 
3. The fertility rate edged up slightly and the new three-child policy could boost the fertility rate to about 1.4. That is well below the level of 2.1 which is required for a population to replace itself.

• Summary: Despite the Politburo promising it would provide better child-care facilities, improve state-funded provisions for looking after the elderly, expand maternity benefits and lower the cost of education, the social reality of China now preclude any baby boom. China's decline may have set in, firmly and finally, at least on the one metric that's clearly visible - its numbers!

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