Russia's belligerence on the Ukraine border is stoking fear of skirmishes. An update.
SHARE:
Putin pumps up pressure on Ukraine border - yet again
- The story: The G-8 was reduced to G-7 many years ago, when Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, dabble disastrously in Ukraine. Today, massive mobilisation of Russian troops on the Ukraine border and occasional outbreak of violence in the contested Donbass region has pushed both countries to the brink of an open conflict, yet again.
- Why the tussle: When the Soviet Union was created in the 1920s, Ukraine eventually became a part of it, and remained there throughout the Cold War. It was a good friend of Russia (and Putin) till 2013.
- Annexation of Crimea - From 2012, Ukraine was planning to sign an association agreement with the European Union in 2013, but Russia sternly objected to it. That led to tensions. Russia subsequently annexed “Crimea” (Russian speaking province in Ukraine) by force and declared its sovereignty with people’s support. The resultant conflict has so far claimed about 10,000 lives and displaced millions with no lasting resolution in sight.
- Naval skirmish over the Sea of Azov - After Crimea’s annexation in 2014, Russia gained control over both sides of the Kerch strait. In May 2018, Russian opened a 12-mile-long bridge over the Kerch Strait, which has also become the physical gateway to the Sea of Azov. To prevent the Ukrainian boats from passing under the bridge, Russia placed a cargo ship below it. The Ukrainian vessels’ attempt to travel from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov was denied by the Russian coast guard. Ukraine insists that the patrol of the Kerch Strait was authorised under a bilateral agreement with Moscow. The naval skirmish over the Sea of Azov was to exhibit Russia’s finality of its annexation of Crimea.
- Russian backed rebels - Russia has been criticised for its involvement in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. There, Russian-backed separatists have been fighting with Ukrainian troops. In May 2021, Moscow has allegedly deployed thousands of troops as well as tanks and artillery near Ukraine’s eastern border and has mobilised troops in the annexed Black Sea region of Crimea.
- 2021 trouble - Belarus, a Russian ally was blamed for the migration crisis in the EU’s Polish border. Russia flew bombers near Poland’s borders earlier in November '21. In the Black Sea, Russian President Vladimir Putin dispatched vessels to shadow U.S. warships.
- Situation serious: Why is the current conflict more aggressive than the earlier ones? There were similar scenes earlier 2021, but after U.S. diplomatic intervention, Moscow pulled back. This time round, the Russian moves appear to be part of a larger strategy of force-projection across Russia’s western perimeter, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.
- Russia views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier parked just across southern Russia because of the U.S. influence on Ukraine.
- Its aggressiveness could have partly been driven by the assessment that the U.S. has strategically weakened after its Afghan withdrawal and its preoccupation with China’s rise.
- Ukraine says an estimated 90,000 Russian troops have massed near the border which could be a prelude to another Russian invasion.
- Minsk Agreements: The Minsk Protocol (Minsk-1) with the Minsk Memorandum was signed in 2014 to prevent war in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas.
- The representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine (TCG – Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE) and the representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR,LNR) signed the agreement.
- The Protocol was followed by an additional Memorandum, which detailed the conditions of a ceasefire. The agreement failed to stop fighting, however, it significantly reduced fighting in the conflict zone for months. The Minsk-2 (Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements) was signed in 2015 under the mediation of France and Germany to prevent an open conflict. It was designed to end the fighting in the rebel regions and hand over the border to Ukraine’s national troops.
- Ukraine was required to delegate more power to the breakaway regions and introduce constitutional reforms, codifying their special status.
- Any solution possible: Ukraine’s reluctance to implement the agreement and its growing military, economic and political ties with the West seem to have prompted Russia to put Ukraine under direct military pressure.
- Ukraine lacks the military resources to deter its giant neighbour and there is no guarantee that the West would come to its help in the event of a Russian invasion.
- Russia might make tactical gains from an invasion but such a move could further deteriorate its already ruptured ties with the West.
- The practical solution is to revive the Minsk peace process. The West should push both sides to resume talks and live up to their commitments as per the Minsk agreement to restore relative peace on the border.
- Belarus problem: On the border between Poland and Belarus, refugees from the Middle East are massing. They have been lured there by Alexander Lukashenko, the Kremlin-backed dictator of Belarus, with false promises of a new life in the West. Temperatures fall below zero at night and people are sleeping in uninsulated tents.
- Russia and Belarus hope to generate a humanitarian crisis that will test the EU’s resolve and unity. So far, the EU has stood firm, backing Poland in its determination to keep the migrants out, and placing responsibility for their plight where it belongs, with Belarus. European leaders have threatened further sanctions against Belarus and even against Aeroflot, Russia’s national airline, which could be banned from flying through the EU’s airspace.
- But if significant numbers of people start to die at the border, this unity may yet fracture. Whatever happens, Mr Putin’s strategy of sowing mischief will surely continue. And the confrontation with the West, on which his increasingly unpopular regime tries to base its legitimacy, will deepen.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the reasons why Russia is exhibiting steady belligerence in varous European theatres. (2) What are the signals that Putin's authoritarianism is getting out-of-hand in various areas? What can the West do about it?
#COP26 #Amazon #Brazil
* Content sourced from free internet sources (publications, PIB site, international sites, etc.). Take your own subscriptions. Copyrights acknowledged.
COMMENTS