Net Zero goals ought to make sense

The whole approach to "net zero emissions" ought to make technical sense. An update.

Net Zero goals ought to make sense

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• COP26 2021: Major headline grabbing announcements were made during the COP26, including from Indian leaders. India promised "net zero by 2070", and 500 GW non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030, and 50% of all energy from renewables by 2030.
• One billion tonnes: This will need India to cut its carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030, a tall task. Modi also promised India's carbon intensity to be 45% by 2030. Clearly, India's climate policy has shifted in a big way, after the Paris Agreement, 2015. How? Unconditional commitment of emission reduction.
• Net Zero jargon: The IPCC report 2013 (Fifth Assessment Report) had said that to limit global warming and temperature rise, cumulative stock of carbon emissions has to be limited. Net manmade carbon emission had to go to zero.

1. That idea made it to the 2015 Paris Agreement - "countries must aim to reach global peaking of GHGs as soon as possible" to achieve "a balance between manmade emissions and removals via sinks" by 2050
2. The 2018 IPCC report said that net zero by 2050 was needed if temperature rise was to be limited to 1.5°C and worst impact was to be avoided [IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]

• Announcements: The UN SDG Goal Seven also talks about "affordable and clean energy" by reducing emissions and promoting renewables. Many countries have announced net-zero pledges. Sweden's 2045 pledge is now a law, while UK's law is for 2050. China's committed to 2060, and India to 2070. Overall, more than 50% of global GDP and 33% population is now covered by such pledges. [SDG - Sustainable Development Goals]
• Do net-zero pledges mean anything: Many countries are making these pledges to avoid getting criticised for climate inaction! Only concrete roadmaps and plans will show if they were sincere. The 2021 Nov. analysis by UNEP showed that many pledges were not consistent with the respective NDCs by those countries. [UNEP - UN Environment Programme; NDC - Nationally Determined Contributions]
• India's claims versus reality: The claim at Glasgow was - "India's non-fossil fuel energy was up by 25% in past 7 years, and was more than 40% of total energy mix in 2021".

1. This is false. More than 80% of total energy comes from coal, gas and biomass
2. Solar and wind is 20%, not 40%

• Coal is the problem: India's net zero goal will face coal as the big problem, as no phasing out plan exists. The transition to green energy is hugely costly, and today there is no master plan (financial and technological). India committed to a transition year, with no credible system in place.
• What the West is targetting: The Western countries are trying to build a new carbon market to operationalise the Paris Agreement. That "carbon emission trading mechanism" was not built since 2015.

1. Two mechanisms were proposed, and all countries agreed to go for NDCs
2. Then there was the idea for carbon markets, that countries could cooperatively build, while promoting climate adaptation
3. Countries can finance climate adaptation projects in other countries and use those reductions in their own targets (Article 6)
4. This was the successor to the CDM (clean development mechanism) of the now-defunct Kyoto Protocol

• Summary: India now is committed hugely to its 2030 and 2070 goals. All sectors of the economy now need clear plans to do so - infrastructure, transport, industrial production, building energy, and forestry. A just and equitable transition is needed.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the idea behind the global carbon markets that the Paris deal proposed. (2) What do we mean by "concrete plans" needed to put net-zero pledges into action? Explain. (3) Explain the nature of India's renewable journey so far, and the future direction.

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