A full update on what was achieved at COP26, Glasgow.
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- The story: The United Nations climate conference in Glasgow started on October 31 with the heads of over 140 countries scaling up expectations. It wrapped up in two weeks, with 197 countries agreed to a political outcome called the “Glasgow Climate Pact”. Experts were not too happy with its potential outcome in terms of warming expected.
- Final Agreement: The wording was not very different from decisions in the previous conference of parties (COP), but with some positive takeaways on coal, fossil fuels and new emission review mechanisms. The goal in COP26 was primarily to operationalise the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015. The Glasgow pact, by itself, is just a non-binding political statement.
- It shows the intent to collectively act on several fronts — reduce greenhouse gas emissions from coal and reducing subsidy on fossil fuels; enhance National Determined Contributions (NDCs) before the next climate conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022; a mechanism to review NDCs by 2023; a carbon trading market to be in place by 2023; and $100 billion every year by 2025.
- The political decision at Glasgow asks nations to enhance NDCs every five years instead of 10, and double money for climate adaptation by 2025.
- Other major agreements signed were on reversing deforestation by 105 countries, methane emission reduction by 30-odd nations, climate finance deal to reduce fossil fuel dependence in most climate-vulnerable nations and a global mechanism to infuse electric cars in personal transport. India is not part of these agreements.
- ISA and USA: The United States (US) agreed to become part of the international Solar Alliance, a multi-lateral form anchored by India to enhance the transfer of solar technologies to the developing world.
- US China: A milestone was a US and China joint statement that placed specific timelines on emission mitigation. It is the first of such agreements between the two biggest carbon polluters of the world at COP. These multi-lateral agreements would also lead to some emission cuts but are more aligned towards pushing new cleaner technologies.
- Previous failures: An afforestation agreement signed by close to 100 countries in Paris in 2015 failed to take off as Norway backed out from funding two years later. It would be prudent to wait and watch to see how many of these agreements really materialise on the ground.
- Details: Without adequate finance, the world will not be able to deal with the rising vagaries of the climate crisis. This was visible in India with devastating rains in Kerala and Tamil Nadu in October and November and in Uttarakhand in early October '21.
- Science clearly says that the impact of the climate crisis has intensified, historical polluters – rich countries that have contributed the most to cause climate change – have not substantially increased climate finance. They promised $100 billion at the failed 2010 conference at Copenhagen, and the Glasgow pact says they should ensure that $100 billion is delivered every year from 2025 onwards, 15 years since Copenhagen.
- The UNFCCC executive secretary Patricia Espinosa also articulated the same emotion clearly.
- The Glasgow pact talks about doubling climate finance from the 2019 level, but the possibility of that happening by 2025 appears remote. At best, it may happen by 2030.
- Progress on Loss and Damage, a mechanism to compensate the developing world for the devastation wrought by the climate crisis, remains insignificant as there was no indication on how much money would be provided. Rich countries continued to block its implementation on the grounds that there’s no clear system to evaluate the “contribution of climate change” to any damage.
- The Glasgow conference has agreed on rules on “carbon trading” (as per Article 6 of the Paris agreement) that provides for setting up carbon markets to offset emissions of rich countries by mitigation measures in the developing world. It has some shortcomings as seen earlier in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) implemented for a decade under the Kyoto Protocol from 2002 onwards. The operationalising of carbon markets will allow countries to scale up their cooperation and mobilise additional finance through private sector participation. But carbon markets may allow rich countries to greenwash their emissions through buying credits from the developing world, an accounting exercise full of potential scams.
- The commitment to “net zero” (carbon neutrality target) was the buzzword with close to 120 countries announcing their net-zero target year. Many including India joined the bandwagon. Net-zero implies that if there is a certain amount of climate-changing emissions in one place, it can be “offset” elsewhere in a number of ways such as capturing it in trees or the oceans or through storage. It does not necessarily mean reducing emissions at the place where they are happening. So, emissions from power plants, factories, which have harmful effects on biodiversity may not be reduced, and in effect, may increase. Some projections for net-zero are based on unrealistic projects on land availability, or unproven technologies. In India, it may translate to 'grabbing' land from communities for massive new plantations; this is already happening in the name of compensatory afforestation carried out purportedly to “offset” the ecological damage caused by cutting down natural forests for mining, dams, highways, etc.
- There are definite, small steps forward, but not adequate to limit the global temperature rise to 2°C by the turn of the century as enshrined in the Paris agreement. Limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C still remains an elusive goal. Achieving the 1.5°C goal with present intentions and rising emissions, now looks almost impossible. The Climate Action Tracker warned the temperature would rise to 2.4°Celsius by the end of 2100 if all countries meet their enhanced commitments made before and at the Glasgow conference.
- Glasgow tailored down its commitment to “phasing out” coal saying the countries would work to “phase down” coal emissions. This was following stiff resistance from India and China, where coal remains the main source of energy. It has also shifted most goalposts to the next climate conference in Egypt while keeping the 1.5°C goal alive.
- Indian commitment: PM Modi announced the net-zero emissions by 2070, saving one billion tonnes of carbon by 2030, 500GW of renewable by 2030, 50% of energy needs from renewable by 2030 and reducing emission intensity for a unit of GDP by 45% by 2030. India is yet to submit these announcements as its enhanced NDCs.
- Summary: The announcements in Glasgow mean a marginal improvement, as the projected temperature rise before the conference was 2.7°C. COP president Alok Sharma said that Glasgow has ensured that the 1.5°C goal is still in sight, though countries will have to raise ambition significantly next year. Sadly, there was no mention of a carbon budget and right of the developing world to occupancy the remaining carbon space, and the pathway to 1.5°C is almost closed (experts fear).
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the six outcomes of the COP26 summit, Glasgow, 2021. What is the world now looking at realistcially? (2) What was India's role at COP26 summit? Explain the row over coal use. (3) What are the missing links in the way the world is tackling environmental degradation and global warmig? Explain w.r.t. Glasgow summit, 2021.
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