We need a scientific formula for the allocation of vaccine doses

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We need a scientific formula for the allocation of vaccine doses

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• Grim reality: India crossed a daily infection rate of 3 lakhs in April 2021, and shortage of vaccines became a serious concern for all states. States accuse the Centre of not making any plan to ensure enough supplies.
• Effective and efficient formula: India needs a vaccine allocations not randomly, but based on an effective and efficient scientific formula. 

1. Present method or formula is not known to anyone
2. A transparent formula, taking Covid severity into account, is needed

• Six predictors based formula proposed: How many vaccines should reach a state, will depend on population size, exposure and vulnerability to pandemic.

1. Six indicators can be from 3 dimensions - demography, severity of current wave, infection vulnerability (all 3 with equal weights)
2. Demographic dimension - what proportion of state population is at or above 45 yrs
3. Severity dimension - covered by percentage distribution of confirmed cases and Covid deaths till 22 April
4. Vulnerability dimension - use three indicators - share of population above 45 yrs with multi-morbid conditions, proportion of rural population not covered by CHCs (Community Health Centres), and percentage distribution of urban populations across states
5. Learnings - A higher share of urban residents and older people with multi-morbidities, and poor healthcare support, will increase infections and consequent deaths also. 

• What formula says: The top five states needing vaccines urgently are Maharashtra, UP, Karnataka, Bihar and W Bengal. About 50% must go to these states, but actually they got just 37%. So distribution is unequal, and rising daily fatality count proves this.

1. Delhi and Maharashtra are getting 56% and 57% of formula's proposed share, showing huge deficit in vaccination coverage
2. TN, UP, Punjab and Bihar have a coverage deficit of 30% (as per the formula devised)
3. Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, AP, Telangana and W Bengal are getting the right shares (for appropriate vaccine coverage)
4. MP, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Haryana, Kerala, Uttarakhand, J&K and Gujarat have received more than their needs
5. Odisha and Rajasthan got 200% of their needs

• Intra-state distribution: Within a state too, distribution can be done using similar criteria, considering the spread and severity of the pandemic city-wise. Every week, the formula's data needs to be updated to change allocations.
• No wastage: When things turn bad (like now in India), people readily accept vaccines. Later, they start developing hesitancy. The key to success is scale and speed. The ball is in government's court to realise this truth, and push a scientific strategy, with full force.

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