Warming of climate diplomacy

Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!

Warming of climate diplomacy

---

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

---

• Global climate diplomacy: Activism has arrived in global climate diplomacy, if the series of announcements by countries on "net-zero emissions" is any indication.
• The big guns: China has committed a net-zero for 2060, and US, UK, EU and Japan are promising huge reductions by 2030. 

1. If the 40 : 40 : 20 power structure of global climate diplomacy is any guide, then US and China's new stance is welcome
2. First "40" includes China and US (the G-2) who emit the most CO2, upto 40% of global total, and whose veto power is assumed on any global deal
3. Next "40" includes 18 countries including India, each with more than 1% of global emissions. Taken together, they are as powerful emitters as the First 40
4. Remaining "20" are the 180 countries with no power.

• IPCC's pressure: It is remarkable to see the power that scientific bodies like the IPCC hold on public perception. IPCC's 2018 report on the 1.5 degree C warming is a good example. The report forced everyone to talk about speeding up the implementation of the Paris Climate deal, and also of net-zero emissions targets 2050.
• Problem with net-zero: Even if many countries set their net-zero targets for 2050, the rise in temperature by 1.5 degree C cannot be managed if greenhouse gases are emitted at current rates. 

1. The world needs to emit only 25 giga tonnes CO2 equivalent (GTCO2e) by 2030 for the 1.5 degree C track, but is likely to reach 59 GTCO2e actually
2. Getting to net-zero by 2050 is senseless if emissions reduction is not accelerated, and 2030 targets not made higher
3. In April 2021, US (13% of global emissions) promised a 50% reduction in its GHG emissions by 2030 (but will Congress cooperate with Biden to enable this?)
4. EU+UK (9.3% of global emissions) have promised a 55% cut by 2030 and Japan (2.8% of total) a 46% cut
5. Is this still enough? The rich nations put most of the CO2 in the atmosphere, and must now create enough carbon space for the developing world. 
6. Assuming US, UK, EU and Japan do what they have promised (cuts by 2030 and net zero by 2050), they'll still have emitted 150 GTCO2e (and a total of 976 GTCO2e counting all emissions from pre-industrial times)
7. China will have used up 530 GTCO2e of carbon space (if it reaches net zero by 2060)

• What of India: Its emissions are just a quarter of China's, but pressure by global community is high for a net-zero emissions target. If India's peak emissions are at 4.5 GTCO2e in 2040, and net zero by 2070, then it would be a total of just 194 GTCO2e. The clear message is that rich world has to aim for net-zero well before 2050, and let developing nations (India) become economically prosperous.
• India's right strategy: Do not announce any net-zero emissions target in a hurry. First, study targets of others and find their feasibility (or otherwise). Then made the net-zero target conditions on getting green finance (concessional) and right technology, so that climate justice happens.
• India and Coal: China told the world (in the Biden April Climate meet) that it would begin scaling down coal plants from 2026 (start of its 15th Five Year Plan). India's new coal power plants would start by 2026-27, though by 2030, about 40% of total energy would be from renewables. India's peak coal can be somewhere after 2030, and then a decline can be promised.
• Production not consumption: The estimates and commitments are based on emissions arising from production, not from consumption (by everyone). The 10 percent richest of the world account for 48% of total emissions. Of these 10%, half are in high-income countries, and remaining in middle-income ones. So, there's the issue of social justice between rich and poor citizens, and there's the issue of CDR (common but differentiated responsibility - inter-country). Both are connected.
• Summary: What India promised in the Paris cliamte deal, it has lived upto it. It must reinforce the 2030 goals for others, to actually have credible net-zero targets, and real climate justice. 

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

Join UPSC Self Prep course | Online Course (PT Gurukul)  | Covid Special Course | Join PT courses

* Content sourced from free internet sources (publications, PIB site, international sites, etc.). Take your own subscriptions. Copyrights acknowledged.