Theatre commands need careful planning

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Theatre commands need careful planning

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• Democracies: As the most mature form of government, democracies always exhort others to follow suit. But not always do democracies work best, especially when popular mandates force governments to suddenly change path, and pursue the unknown.
• Indian military planning: The military, led by CDS, is now restructuring itself based on what has been done in the US and China - the integrated theatre commands concept. Before India jumps headlong, it's important to see why those nations did it, at all.
• US first: First nation in the world to build integrated theatre commands was USA, through the UCP (Unified Command Plan) that established the geographical areas for combatant commands.

1. UCP is a secret executive branch document, revised every 2 years, and goes straight to the President via the Defence Secretary
2. US has 7 geographical commands (with a regional focus), and 4 functional commands today (which work across geographic boundaries)
3. Each of these 11 has enough force, and a C4ISR system - command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance

• China next: The PLA (People's Liberation Army) was organised as per military regions, that kept changing from 13 to 7 to 5 (2014). Then the need was felt for a joint command (with ground, naval and air) and the Second Artillery Corps forces. The key trigger was East China Sea imperative. 

1. In 2016, the US model was used to create 5 geographical peace-time commands, all within mainland China itself (5 theatres); the Western theatre being bigger than entire India
2. It was to promote joint training 

• Truth on ground: The US is a global military force, with a budget of $778 b in 2020, more than next seven nations' budgets combined. President Biden is increasing US commitments to NATO, not reducing it. Budget is bound to rise. The Chinese aim at challenging the US hegemony, and the supreme Chinese Communist Party can do as it wishes. Only its Western Theatre command can challenge India significantly.
• Indian situation: It is the only nation with two hostile nuclear-armed neighbours and unresolved border issues. India's population of 1.38 b and smaller GDP (4% of the world) makes the competition for funds intense. Indian defence budget hasn't crossed 2.5% of GDP, per annum, since 2011. With Covid, it's impossible to raise this. 

1. In such a situation, a total change in military design requires both a worm's eye-view and a bird's eye-view
2. The former tells us how to achieve joint synergy across forces, and the latter tells us where we want to be 15 years from now
3. Joint planning and training is a must, to get good results; armed forces have to fight together
4. The first step is "planning together“

• Dangers: The very limited assets of the Indian Air Force are being diluted by dividing across new theatre commands. There is no planning, or taking the air force into confidence, before attempting this. We are trying to copy what the US and China have done, without having those resources. What needs fixing is being ignored, and what's working well is being fixed!
• Summary: The present moves are ill-advised, and must not be pursued.

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