The road from Ladakh is paved with disruptions

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The road from Ladakh is paved with disruptions

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• LAC Ladakh standoff: In was in May 2020 that the news of Chinese incursions in Ladakh along the LAC surfaced first. By June, 20 Indian soldiers had lost their lives, and the extent of China's incursions could no longer be hidden or downplayed, which was at seven places - Depsang Plains, Galwan, Gogra, Hot Springs, North Pangong Tso, Kailash range, and Demchok.  [LAC - Line of Actual Control]
• Galwan: This situation was resolved as both sides withdrew from the face-off site. Indian Army occupied some heights on the Kailash range in August, in close proximity of the Chinese deployments. In Feb 2021, both agreed to disengage there, and also from north bank of Pangong Tso. India did its bit, and the Chinese still haven't! So, they cheated India.
• Where India erred: India made the mistake of withdrawing from Kailash ranges in return for simultaneous Chinese withdrawal from north bank of Pangong Tso. The earlier position of India was that all points of conflict will be simultaneously resolved in one shot, not piecemeal. Actually, India realised that given the huge army presence on both sides, a conflagration was likely. And for Modi govt., to create the impression of a solution having been reached was more important (which was not the case).
• No closure: Today, there's no closure at all. The status quo ante as of April 2020 is not reached, as Chinese troops are not allowing Indians the patrolling rights to territories controlled earlier. The so-called peace at the border is unsustainable and unstable. Huge deployments continue on both sides, and the Indian Army has reoriented its formations towards the China border (from the Pakistan border).
• Enter the pandemic: In the middle of this grave geopolitical problem at the border, India entered the pandemic. The vaccine diplomacy of Beijing was countered by India via the "Vaccine Maitri" programme, that flopped as India herself fell victim to the second massive wave of death and disease. India reneged even on its contractual commitment to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka etc., who then took the vaccines from China. Can India be seen as a counter to China now? Tough to believe.
• Quad and vaccines: India was the key to the promise made by Quad nations, to deliver 100 crore vaccine doses in Indo-Pacific by end 2022, to counter China's influence in the region. But that proposal is under a cloud, as India is importing for her own needs. India's aura as an emerging power has taken a big hit, due to the complete mismanagement of pandemic.
• Weak India: If the perception then is that India is weak, China will think that India will always seek US support in strategic matters. That will further weaken China-India relationship everytime there's a problem in the China-US relation.
• Two front collusive war: India realised it well that Pak-China collusion is real, and to avoid any such two-front war, India went for peace with Pakistan through the back channels. The UAE facilitated it, and the ceasefire on LoC has held so far. Modi promised some steps on Kashmir, that are pending. So Pakistan is getting anxious.
• China's moves: President Xi Jinping conveyed his sympathy to Mr Modi over the pandemic, and offered to help. Cargo flights started. Most help is coming from private companies, Red Cross, Red Crescent societies, and not the govt. itself (like it is, from the West). India anyway is heavily dependent on Chinese medical supplies today.
• Positions of friction: Sadly, India and China have not been able to resolve the issues amicably. India is firm that unless the border issue is resolved, the bilateral relationship cannot be smooth. China disagrees, and claims it is a small part of the larger relationship. The emerging scene is one of distrust, and potential clashes.

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