The path to herd mortality

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The path to herd mortality

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• Mortality data: As months are passing by, and mortality data is getting compiled properly from multiple sources (Civil Registration System CRS and National Health Mission NHM), the actual impact of pandemic is becoming clear.
• NHM data: The NHM collets data from 2 lakh rural health centres, and shows excess mortality of 3 lakh in May 2021, compared to May 2019. For April, it's 1 lakh extra. Just multiply this by 3 to account for all population outside the NHM's reach. That would be 9 lakh extra deaths in May, and 3 lakh in April. This includes some non-Covid deaths too.
• Versus official: Till date, officially, 4,12,000 Indians have died in March 2020 to May 2021 period (15 months). But in just April and May 2021, four times that number may have perished. There are three ways to check these numbers.

1. First - compile excess Covid-19 death calculations by different people on a state-by-state basis
2. Second - theoretically, extrapolate from serosurveys and assume a certain infection to fatality ratio
3. Third - extrapolate from a national household survey

• Convergence: Experts found that the three methods gave similar results, and all India Covid deaths in India would be more than 25 lakhs till date. Experts also say that even in poor states like Jharkhand, door to door surveys for Covid mortality was done properly (during second wave). All other states too can do it.
• Partition 1947: If the British had not been in a tearing hurry to leave India, the entire bloodshed of partition could have been avoided. 

1. In the 2020-21 pandemic, if only people were properly explained the merits of social distancing, and if only a proper oxygen supply was maintained, many deaths could have been avoided.
2. Quicker and faster vaccination could have taken the Indians closer to herd immunity.
3. The tearing hurry shown by govt. in 2020-21 was the reason things slipped so badly.

• Tearing hurry, part 2: First came the declaration of victory over Covid, in Feb 2021. Then came the one-year preponement of Kumbh Mela, Uttarakhand. Why? There must be astrological, or political reasons. And then the assembly elections of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal were held, in a stretched out mode, as also the Panchayat elections UP. 
• Herd mortality: Sadly, India has not achieved herd immunity, but herd mortality. In an environment of vast job losses and income degradation, people kept running from pillar to post struggling for support during the second wave, even for cremation of the dead. Even vaccines were on a paid basis! (and free too)
• Summary: Such huge death tolls don't simply pass away silently. They change people's behaviour. The 1947 tragedy changed India's socio-cultural fabric, and the 2021 tragedy is changing the way people look at administration and government. Trust is at stake now.

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