Sea lanes, BRI central to China's strategy

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Sea lanes, BRI central to China's strategy

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• Tension in Indo-Pacific: It was in August 1945 that American air power forced the Japanese to surrender unconditionally, after the two atomic attacks were carried out. Now, in August 2021, there's a huge deployment of combat vessels of Australia and America in the same region. Goal? Defending democratic values, handle shared threats, and keep nations safe.
• Definitional problem: These three phrases need to be defined more clearly, as they are open to multiple interpretations.

1. Till date, the navies of the Quad nations haven't been deployed in any solid manner, but only random exercises have happened
2. The new entrants - UK, NZ, Germany, France - are deploying their navies far away from home, and also are dependent on China for trade and commerce
3. For many of them, China is the only large-scale supplier of essential, non-essential, critical finished and consumer goods

• Why do it now: This expansion of naval flotillas on the high seas is due to China's expansionism. But what took these countries so long?

1. The key battle for supremacy is between the US and PLA Navy in western Pacific Ocean, which the US has treated as its own lake (post 1945)
2. US always boasted of being the only true super sea power state (in 1980s), when the Soviets were stuck in Afghanistan
3. Today in 2021, the turn of events is such that the US Navy may come up a bit short of the PLAN assets in the region - a prominent former Navy Secretary thinks the US may lose a naval war against China now
4. A key reason has been the neglect of naval power by many successive leaders

• Where did the mistake begin: The Americans made the biggest mistake in not truly understanding the nature of the Chinese Communist Party. It focussed on cash, commerce, capital and profit, something that the Chinese ensured kept flowing in the relationship.
• No assessment: Various publications realised in the 1980s itself, that gathering genuine info on Chinese navy was very tough, and that was a shame. Any passage from Vladivostok to the South China Sea passed through the portals of the Chinese navy. Then the Chinese navy started modernising, and with more of western tech being used, information is available.
• Australia's cries: Tony Abbott, the former Australian PM, was fooled thoroughly by the Chinese. He was the one who hosted Xi Jinping in 2014 and signed the FTA in 2015.

1. Now he says that the Chinese simply exploited the West's goodwill and stole all technologies
2. The free world was wrong in allowing the global trade platform to China, which has now become so powerful that it is using that strength to build a strong military

• How bad is it: The question is - is it "late" or is it "never"? Perhaps the free world needs to focus as much on the South China sea axis,  it must also take the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) into account.

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