Many Emirs of Afghanistan

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Many Emirs of Afghanistan

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• From 1990s to 2020s: The 1990s saw the rise of the Taliban - only the Taliban - but the 2020s is witnessing the rise of a Taliban that's in coalition with many competing interests, within and from outside (regioanl powers), who want their stake protected.
• Multiple demands: The Taliban are being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously (from inside and outside). Pakistan has deep links with them, and then there's Qatar that's talking on their behalf with the West. The political settlement failed to happen anyway. The UAE took in a fleeing Ashraf Ghani (angering Qatar), and is allowing temporary stay for fleeing Afghans too.
• Others: There is another set - Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan - sharing borders with Afghanistan but not having too much clout. Their culturally affiliated ethnic groups live in that country. 

1. Tajik resistance is putting up a fight in the Panjshir valley
2. Turkey will take over Kabul airport once US leaves, and has shut its borders with Iran to stop refugees from entering (it has a huge load already)
3. Iran too wouldn't want a huge load of refugees 
4. All these countries may be natural allies for India (suffering due to loss of influence inside Afghanistan), and all will expect that an inclusive govt. takes charge now.

• A mix of many: The supreme leader (low key) of the Taliban, who is also the spiritual leader, is Hibatullah Akhundzada. The violent Haqqani network controls the military side. Abdul Ghani Baradar controls the politics, and is the face. There's no clarity on overlapping roles at all. 
• Afghan nationalism: Countries feel that if the Taliban adopt a nationalist agenda, then granting legitimacy (recognition) would be much easier. The Taliban will need an Afghan-specific political agenda then. But can the Taliban just restrict to it?
• Other countries: The US, Russia and China have their own game to play. For the US, the bungling in exit has been a bad signal, and there's worry of refugees (amongst EU allies) and embarrassment of defeat at the hands of Taliban. So US wants a Taliban-plus regime with all segments of society represented.

1. Russia will worry about Afghan refugees building pressure on borders of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. 
2. China will want a government that helps its economic cause.

• Road ahead: The Taliban will now need to get other non-Taliban groups along, amalgamate with the Afghan National Army (Tajik-dominated) and police, and adopt a democratic political system. It cannot junk the bureaucracy of outgoing system, and must use some modern governance tools. Can the Taliban truly balance their Islamic radicalism with Afghan nationalism? Can it balance the demands of so many other countries?
• If it fails: If the Taliban fail in managing all these contradictions, if it fails in giving a future roadmap for the country, then everything will turn into violence and mayhem, soon. Expect more terror, and more refugees.

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