India needs third-generation reforms

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India needs third-generation reforms

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  • Two major turns: Since 1950s, India took two major policy turns, both giving a growth boost. And then both petered out slowly. India now needs a third boost urgently.
  • The two boosts: The first came immediately in 1950s based on central planning and imports substitution. Growth rose from 1950s to 1965. Then came degrowth and policy troubles, continuing till late 1970s. The second came in 1991, when an open economy market-framework was adopted, which was the global trend. Higher savings and investments pushed GDP growth rates to 7% p.a., exports rose and poverty declined substantially. Then it all slowed down from 2010 onwards.  (focus in second generation reforms was unleashing the private sector from state controls, but nothing much was done to improve govt. performance)
  • Major slowdown: Since 2010, Indian economy has seen a wide-ranging slowdown, leading to poor fresh jobs generation for the constantly growing workforce. 
    1. Net new jobs added since 15 years is near zero! Govt has to promote labour-intensive, exports-oriented factories (which needs more openness, not less)
    2. The key failure since 1950s has been poor attention to health, education and nutrition (it hits employability directly as more of brainpower is now needed in new economy jobs)
  • Third boost: What India now needs is a total focus on - (i) efficient public services, (ii) much better primary and secondary schooling, (iii) water supply and sanitation, (iv) nutrition and health, and (v) better urban infrastructure. All this needs higher state expenditure, technical competence, and execution ability.
    1. Reforms have to empower the public sector to deliver growth on public goods and services
    2. Only private sector supply of education, health and others won't work; public provisioning must go up (else large sections of the less well-off would be left behind)
  • Competence the key: Very high level of technical competence in 1991 allowed a set of complex reforms to be launched. Same is needed now. 
  • Higher fiscal intervention: The govt. has to spend hugely to create public provisioning of goods and services, without crowding out the private sector from it. For all this, a higher tax to GDP ratio is a must, which needs strong revenue streams. 
  • Summary: A much enhanced role of State is now a must in India, contrary to the standard wisdom of "business is not the business of government". All other nations have done precisely that. The present govt. structures in India have to be overhauled in a major way, if any third growth boost is to be seen.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  PT's IAS Academy: India needs third-generation reforms
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