Ethnic divide in Lanka to test Indian diplomacy

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Ethnic divide in Lanka to test Indian diplomacy

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• Sri Lanka and India: Ahead of the human rights related vote at the UNHRC in March 2021, Sri Lanka had expressed hope that India will not abandon it, as it is 'immediately family'. 
• Seven votes so far: India voted in favour of the resolutions (and against SL) in 2009, 2010, 2012; against it in 2013; abstaining from it in 2014; in favour of the US-SL resolution in 2015 (SL withdrew from it after Rajapaksas' return); and finally in 2021 India abstained while majority voted against SL.
• SL's stance: It has kept delaying the reconciliation and accountability processes, depending on who ran the government. It has also not implemented the provisions of the 13th amendment. 

1. The West has imposed sanctions, but Russia and China have provided SL some political cover
2. With the return of the Rajapaksa brothers with an overwhelming majority, due to the Easter Sunday bombing (2019), and any reconciliation with minority Tamils seems distant now.

• What India wants: India wants provincial autonomy in the north for Tamils, within an indivisible Sri Lanka. SL knows it well. But since China is giving support to Sinhala majoritarianism, SL is trying its luck with India now.
• Recent events in SL:

1. Bad omens for India - more military in the north, destruction of was memorial at Jaffna University, pardoning soldiers accused of multiple Tamil murders (killings), not allowing burials of Muslims, cancellation of India-Japan port deal, etc.
2. Good signals for India - Rajapaksas calling India "the family" and the rest as "friends"

• Abstaining in 2021: The top leaders spoke with each other before India abstained finally at the UNHCR. Meanwhile, Tamil leaders in SL had been calling for a reference to the International Criminal Court (ICC), to invstigate genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.
• UNHRC 30/1: SL had earlier accepted to follow this resolution, and go for a time-bound investigation into war crimes during the war. Various versions of it had damaging aspects pertaining to the sordid episode. Over the years, Sri Lanka always refused to accept the various efforts to bring in hybrid courts (with international judges), etc. 
• Truth, Justice and Reconciliation puzzle: For years, the cases of thousands of Tamils who were either murdered by the Army (under Mahinda and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa) or were rehabilitated (no one knows) is what's holding back the entire process of closure.
• India's case: There are two pillars on which India is working - (a) Sri Lanka's sovereignty, and (b) Rights of Tamils under 13A. For the first time these two elements came together. India had sacrificed the lives of 1200 soldiers in 1980s, when the IPKF of Indian Army was sent to avoid a breakup of Sri Lanka. Then, the govt. helped beat LTTE in 2009, overriding domestic Tamil politics. It's time India and SL reconcile and realign on the 13th Amendment, and move on.

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