Economy and second wave

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Economy and second wave

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• Battle won, but not yet: By Jan-Feb 2021, India was jubilant about having won the Covid battle, when the virus decided to make a comeback. From less than 10000 fresh daily cases in Feb 2021, it is back to more than 40000 cases daily. State of Delhi, which declared a victory, are fighting a new surge.
• The economic implications: India just cannot take another series of lockdowns and disruptions. The extended lockdowns of 2020 made it the worst performer among large economies, and a large part of that was due to the slowdown pre-pandemic.
• China's case: It claims positive growth for 2020, and has not shown any major change in Covid numbers. While that can be suspicious, but the highly centralised welfarist model being followed had a role to play. Extremely rapid, large-scale quarantining was done for all infected persons. The mega-machine worked, and there are lessons for democracies too.
• Gameplan for India: Without compromising with human rights, many things are possible.

1. Start making a state-wise database of 1.1 crore people who recovered from Covid-19. Test them to check for antibodies. Reinfection risks are low. 
2. Make these people the Covid-Warrior workforce, allotting person-suitable jobs to them.
3. Goal has to be to build economic activities into a welfare oriented infrastructure. Start by building clinics and hospitals in small towns and villages. (with govt. funding)
4. Use medical startups to train entire networks of medical professionals in such areas, as these are the first line of defence for most Indians

• Education and schools: It is now high time the govt. spent huge sums on building schools that support both online as well as physical education. Let the broadband infrastructure for the poor be free. Buy devices in bulk and distribute it to poor families, or witness crores of children simply dropping out of education. 
• Public transport: Bring all automobile makers on a single platform, and let them produce for a centralised public transport plan. New type of vehicles are needed, as China has already done. And that means coordination between auto firms, component makers, capital good firms, banks and FIs and Ministries at Central and State level.
• Letting firms continue working: Firms that can maintain social distancing must be allowed to keep operating. But since their costs will rise, give them employment and production-linked support. Offer free periodic testing.
• Localised lockdowns: It seems these will happen. So now build a centralised meal service for citizens, for cheap, by bringing catereres, cloud kitches and hotels together. It is possible through huge government funding, and contracting out to private players.
• Vaccination: Increase its pace sharply, and cater to the 20-60 years age group first (who go out to work). Economy will keep running (India adopted a different approach). 
• Government, save us all: It is only the govt. that can pull this off, and for revenues, it must now bring a super-rich tax immediately. Borrow more. Let debts accumulate. The risk is a deeper economic collapse otherwise, if the virus runs amok.

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