Chinese threat looms despite Ladakh pullback

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Chinese threat looms despite Ladakh pullback

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  • Fading hopes: When the Chinese (and Indian) forces withdrew from the Pangong Tso lake, it was hoped that similar withdrawals will happen from other contested locations too (Gogra, Hot Springs, Depsang Plains). That is not happening, and the statement by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi makes it clearer.
  • Wang Yi, the fox: He said that the border issue is not the only thing defining the relationship between India and China. That means he wants it to be left as it is, while other things may move on. So let relations be normalised, and focus shifted away from 'salami slicing' tactics.
  • Two steps forward, one step back: All along the 3488 km long LAC (Line of Actual Control), the Chinese have constantly made creeping acquisitions. That won't stop now, as the rising Chinese power has made them quite aggressive (as seen in South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea (ECS) and Taiwan).
  • Economic reasons: China is intent on a low-key conflict with India so that India's interests and resources are spent on the borders, and not in the economy. For raw materials and markets for finished products, both powers compete anyway. Don't forget that India made emergency purchases of Rs.20776 crores in 2020, for Ladakh skirmish. As the standoff hasn't ended, more purchases will have to be made.
  • The Covid-19 shock: India suffered economically due to the 2020 pandemic, but China emerged relatively better. That was the time it decided to hit India where it hurt, and thought apparently to win a resounding victory without firing a shot. Indian defence forces proved China wrong, and so the Chinese would continue pestering.
  • Leverage lost: Since the excellent bargaining chip of India having occupied the Kailash Range (south of Pangong Tso) is also lost now (because disengagement happened on both sides), how will India make China withdraw from other friction points? They just may not.
  • Indian strategy: It will be in two parts -
    1. Internationally - India has to now work internationally to contain China. The Quad grouping is a nice place to start, and India must push the Rule of Law in Indo-Pacific region resisting any unilateral actions there. Many ASEAN nations affected by China's SCS expansion have to come together to resist. Collective pressure through forums like SCO, BRICS, EU and UNSC will also help.
    2. Domestically - All attempts to grab Indian territory must be resisted by India. Occupy all areas where we have a tactical advantage.
    3. Infrastructure improvement along the forward areas on LAC is important.
  • Pakistan angle: That Pakistan will take advantage of India's troubles with China is a certainty. It seeks revenge for past defeats. The two front war is not an imaginary concept, and needs stronger funding in defence budget. Many committees have said it to the government and it's time to act now.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                PT's IAS Academy: Chinese threat looms despite Ladakh pullback
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Chinese threat looms despite Ladakh pullback
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