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CAN BHAVISH MAKE OLA ELECTRIC WORK?
Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment
- High petrol price a catalyst: As India's retail fuel prices rocketed through the roof, the public discourse around it created a good entry point for the debate on electric two-wheelers. Some say that it's a situation potentially similar to what demonetisation did for PayTM.
- Lacklustre: But that is not quite so, as no major announcements on electric 2-wheelers came forth. Today, just 0.5% of vehicles in India are electric, with no turnaround in sight.
- Enter Ola: Suddenly, Bhavish Aggarwal's Ola has jumped into the fray, with a huge new promise in the name of Ola Electric Mobility (a part of Ola group). It has failed to deliver on early promises so far.
- Ola Electric was a startup unicorn valued at $1 billion, in 2019, getting huge funding from global giants (SoftBank, Tiger Global etc.)
- Many questioned this, staying Ola had no business model around EVs and no manufacturing expertise at all, and had zero functional products
- After 18 months, there's no product still! Ola has abandoned the battery-as-a-service business idea, and is promoting the new idea - manufacture electric scooters and outsell big brands Hero, Bajaj and Honda
- New announcement: In Dec 2020, Ola announced the world's largest scooter mfg. facility in Tamil Nadu, with a 20 lakh unit annual capacity, to be grown to 1 crore units annually, soon. It will export heavily, also.
- Lot of gas: Ola has not proven anything in this domain so far, despite having raised $300 million for it. It keeps pivoting regularly (moving from one goal to another). Two co-founders have left, and delayed launches are the norm. Its core business of ride bookings has been hit hard due to the pandemic, and the electric business valuation is shaky. Since Bhavish has a total control on shareholding, investors are helpless.
- Three positives: Ola is riding on three positives - reputation of Bhavish as an entrepreneur, lack of EV rivals in India, and the long-term potential of EV. Hence one more round of funding arrived.
- The changing roadmap:
- In 2017, Ola Electric was set up to manufacture 4-wheeler EVs, to replace the fossil fuel vehicle fleet that Ola Rides was using
- Its dream was to build a whole EV ecosystem including charging infrastructure and range of vehicles (2W, 3W, 4W)
- It bombed as drivers returned vehicles due to poor charging infra, and higher running costs
- Then the model shifted to making lithium batteries, to be offered on a pay-as-you-go basis (idea was to have rickshaws swap batteries at Ola charging stations and eventually dump lead-acid batteries). Nothing worked.
- Then came the "10 lakh own three-wheeler EVs by 2021" target, to plan the mega strategy ahead, and this too failed
- Then came the latest announcement of manufacturing EV 2-wheelers, and the purchase of Netherlands-based Etergo BV, a maker of electric scooters (a key reason was high energy-density of Etergo's batteries)
- Bhavish said that ultimately, 2-W will be the mode of choice for urban mobility, soon, globally
- Bhavish is now at the last throw of the dice - if the two-wheeler gamble doesn't work out, all pivots would be exhausted finally!
- Electric 2-W market in India: Of a total of 1.74 crore 2-wheelers sold in 2019-20, 21000 were electric. Ola will face no competition, practically. Slowly, demand is rising. Many e-commerce firms are committing big purchases for next few years, from Mahindra, Hero etc. But EV sales will rise only when costs go below that of owning fossil fuel 2-wheelers. And that needs cheaper batteries, and better charging infra. Also, delivery firms (Swiggy, Zomato, BigBasket) will go for it soon.
- A tipping point: Somewhere in next 2 to 3 years, many innovations and market demands will come together to bring the tipping point for electric 2W.
- Challenges for Ola: Many in senior management have left, and new hands are needed. Manufacturing is a different business altogether, needing tremendous capital investment, and complex supply chains. Ola has zero experience in it. Despite serious shortcomings, funding just keeps coming by! One thing is certain: a large EV market will arrive soon. The winner will be the next auto giant of the world. That is why all problems inside Ola seem insignificant!
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