Avoid knee-jerk reaction

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Avoid knee-jerk reaction

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  • Escalation: The use of drones to cause explosions on Air Force base in Jammu is a definite escalation in violence, at least in perceptual terms. Real violence could be much more in such cases.
  • Quantum jump: This is a sudden shift in terror scene in India, and the drone is not the main issue, but the intent and intelligence in using it, is.
  • Technical details: India currently has small drones like DJI Phantom 4 available on sale, with a range of 1 km and payload of upto 1 kg; attack at night made the drones miss their targets. Commercial drones can't really do precision attacks even with coordinates fed in advance. (showering petal on a VIP - yes!) Reports indicate the drone came from across the border (total 40 km journey) so was a full-fledged system (not just one small drone).
  • Pakistan's UAV programme: They have a full-scale UAV programme with drones of range 1000 km, and tactical ones of upto 80 km. (Bravo+ carried 145 kg). But this attack was shoddy, and clearly implicates Pak, so may not have originated there. Was there a group inside the Pak Army that doesn't want govt. to start a rapprochement with India?
  • Along the border: Recent months saw security forces shooting down many suspected drones and quadcopters (carrying arms and ammunition). Usually, commercial drones are being improvised. After the Jammu attack, more drones were spotted (at Kaluchak military station), and they disappeared. Is someone trying to provoke the military into aggression?
  • Ideal weapon: For terrorists, a small drone is the ideal weapon that can bypass all conventional security mechanisms (and at low heights, it simply disappears in background noise). Drones used by Hezbollah (to target Syrian rebels in 2013) and ISIS drones for intelligence gathering had a deep psychological impact. 
  • Maduro escaped: Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan President, narrowly escaped a drone attack, while Houthis of Yemen damaged Saudi oil refining hugely using UAV-X military drones (long range, kamikaze). They put 10 at work, which was war, not terror.
  • Separate the two: Agencies have to separate the military drones from improvised commercial ones. First one needs better border policing, and second a new thought process altogether. No knee-jerk reaction is advisable against commercial drones. Have more stringent KYC norms for DGCA permissions for drone, but don't ban them.
  • Summary: Small terror groups will gain if paranoid officials start banning things. Walk carefully, and focus on the real culprit.
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