A Power Cut For India

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A Power Cut For India

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• India's priorities: On one hand, the Indian economy has been in a slump for long now, and on top of it, the Afghanistan debacle happened. What should India focus on now?
• India's rise: Over the decades, the factors that led to India's rise, have changed in nature. Surely, in the long run, India will achieve a lot, but that "long run" is now much, much longer. If India accepts it, quick remedial action is possible.
• Emerging, rising, aspirational: Recall the 1990s. India was an emerging economy, a rising power. Come to 2021. India is still an aspirational power. 

1. It was economy that defined India, since 1990. 
2. India grew at an average rate of 3.5% through 1950-80, and then 5.5% from 1980-2000, and then 7.5% from 2001 onwards. From 2003-10, it was 8.5%
3. That suddenly led to drop in poverty, rise in jobs, more urbanisation, more external trade in national income, more exports, rise of competitive Indian firms, and a "Rising India“
4. India had moved on from one geopolitical era (Cold War) to another (neoliberalism)

• Pokhran II sanctions: India's 1998 nuclear tests invited sanctions by countries that are now Quad partners of India - US, Australia and Japan! But Indian economy didn't flinch at all, and PMs Vajpayee and Dr Manmohan Singh steered it well.
• Two factors: India's rise can be explained by -

1. FIRST - In 2000, a report by K Subrahmanyam of NSAB said - "Economic power is what drives a nation in today's world". So rising economy helped [NSAB - National Security Advisory Board]
2. SECOND - The external environment was conducive for India's growth (foreign policy nicely tuned to it, too)
3. And then, the rise of China and that of global jihad were concerns not just for India but also America (that helped)
4. So India developed close relations with the US, and became a strategic partner and a natural ally; the world noticed, and became more benign towards India (India weathered the 2007 global financial crisis, another testimony to its strength)

• Recent years: The economy has slowed down substantially. And it's not short-term, but long-term. The 7.5% growth trajectory of 2000-2014 is a dream for now. That has cut the government's ability to spend money, domestically and abroad. That affects hard power projection. 

1. In parallel, the politics of India has become conflictual rather than consensual
2. Entrepreneurs and normal citizens may feel demoralised by all this
3. Add to all this the worsening global situation, the Afghanistan fiasco, the rise of jihad, and we find an unstable world not conducive to growth

• Summary: Bring stability to local politics and economy first. Then initiate an honest dialogue with the US on priorities. Keep India's interests uppermost in mind.

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