Saudi Arabia and Iran have seen the futility in constant friction, and may find some common ground.
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Sunni Shia rivals coming together - KSA-Iran analysis
- The story: 2021 saw some meetings between representatives of Iran and Saudi Arabia in Baghdad, and in New York. These indicate continuity in the warming of bilateral relations that had been frozen since 2016. The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran can pave the way for regional stability and diplomatic ease for India as well, which has had to gently balance its way through this quagmire.
- Saudi Arabia-Iran conflict: The decades-old feud between them was steadily made worse by religious differences. They follow one of the two main branches of Islam. Iran is largely Shia Muslim, while Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leading Sunni Muslim power. Both are fundamentalist by nature, though in different ways. Iran has an elected theocracy, while Saudis enjoy a totally unelected monarchy.
- Historically, Saudi Arabia, a monarchy and home to the birthplace of Islam, saw itself as the leader of the Muslim world. This was challenged in 1979 by the Islamic revolution in Iran, which created a new type of state in the region - a revolutionary theocracy - with the explicit goal of exporting this model beyond its own borders.
- Saudi Arabia and Iran - two powerful neighbours - are locked in a fierce struggle for regional dominance. Uprisings across the Arab world (after the Arab Spring in 2011) caused political instability throughout the region. Both exploited these upheavals to expand their influence, primarily in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, further heightening mutual suspicions. External powers like the US and Israel have a major role in worsening conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
- Iran and Saudi Arabia are not fighting directly, but are engaged in a variety of proxy wars (conflicts where they support rival sides and militias) in this region. So the Houthi rebels in Yemen get Iranian support. These groups acquire greater capabilities causing more instability. Saudis accuse Iran of supporting such militia.
- Many Iranian protesters attacked Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran following Saudi Arabia’s execution of the Shiite Muslim cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.
- Then why normalise: The Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 Strategy wants targeted reforms within the country’s economy, defense, tourism and renewable energy. In the context of Covid-19, Saudi Arabia has realised that to attract serious investment, it can only achieve it through a de-escalation with Iran.
- Saudi Arabia is also involved in the process of establishing Syria’s power holder Bashar Assad in the Arab League (a regional organization)- a move welcomed by Iran.
- The arrival of the new US president (Joe Biden) and withdrawal of US from Afghanistan is another reason for softening of Saudi-Arabia’s stance on Iran. Both were intense competitors inside Afghanistan for years.
- What will happen due to normalization: First is the possible resolution of Israel-Palestine conflict. Warming of relations betwen Iran and Saudi Arabia may have a postive impact there. The comes stabilization of the oil market. Iran and Saudi Arabia share a common interest for stable oil prices given the importance of the market to their economies. They can ensure steady oil revenues for all producing countries and more predictability to economic planners in both Saudi Arabia and Iran.
- India in the picture: India has had good diplomatic relations with both the countries. Stabilization of relations between the two countries may impact India in a mixed way, because higher oil prices will affect the balance of trade in India. But this could provide easing of investments, connectivity projects across the region. Iran still needs to make a mark in its diplomatic efforts by publicly supporting a cease-fire in Yemen. Clarity on US sanctions over Iran is of prime importance, if Iran-Saudi Arabia relations are to get normalised.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) What are the changes one has witnessed in the Middle East in the past decade? Explain. (2) In what way can normalisation of relations between Saudis and Iranians change global politics? Speculate. (3) Oil markets will stabilise once Iran and Saudi Arabia become friends. Do you agree? Why?
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