A summary of the Indian Covid vaccination story so far.
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India's vaccination story - 100 crores and counting
- How many vaccinated: India launched its Covid-19 vaccination drive on January 16. Of the doses given so far, the proportion of second doses was 28.8 per cent, effectively taking the share of India’s fully vaccinated population to 29.9 per cent. By now, 74 per cent of the eligible population of India (aged 18 and above) has received their first dose of the Covid vaccine (as a percent of total population it would be lower). India has administered more vaccine doses than any other country in the world apart from China. With no other country having a population of anything close to 500 million, the billion-doses club would consist of only these two countries.
- The original target: If India wants to reach the target of vaccinating the entire adult population by the end of the year, the vaccination drive going forward will have to prioritise second doses. Experts also say that given the intensity of the second wave and the high single dose coverage, India is in a good position to avoid any drastic wave in the near future.
- Strategically, even one dose vaccination, combined with the high level of natural infections, will give us enough protection
- The share of fully vaccinated persons could increase much faster if the dose interval was reduced from the current gap of 12 to 16 weeks
- Experts have said it was time that the government started thinking about the option of booster doses, at least for those who were vaccinated early in the year and immuno-compromised adults
- Boosters: Globally, several nations, such as the US and Israel, have started administering booster doses, despite the WHO asking the countries to ensure that poor countries should get access to vaccines first. As of now, the government has said there are no plans for a booster dose and the focus is on vaccinating as many as possible.
- Children: There is talk about vaccinating children. India could be the first country in the world to vaccinate children between 2 and 18 years with Covaxin getting the emergency use approval. While Zydus Cadila is yet to launch its vaccine for adolescents in the market even though it has got the approval, Serum Institute’s clinical trials on children for Covovax, the Novavax candidate, would be over around January.
- Lead vax: While Covishield is the dominant vaccine being given in India, the supply of Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin was poor. The company said that in October, it would supply 55 million doses to the Covid-19 vaccination programme. By December, Bharat Biotech claims it would touch 1 billion annual doses capacity at its sites barring its partners. Covaxin is an inactivated whole virus vaccine, and the technology platform takes time to manufacture, and the yield is less. In contrast, the Serum Institute of India was making around 60 million doses of Covishield a month, which then steadily ramped up to 90 million a month around July, and by September, it touched 160 million monthly doses. In October, SII is set to supply 200 million doses of Covishield.
- 100 crore milestone: The 100-crore milestone is being achieved in about 275 days — the first vaccine doses were administered on January 16 — which means that, on an average, 27 lakh doses have been given every day through this ten-month period. There have been wide variations in the daily number of doses administered. On six days, more than 1 crore doses were administered, with a record of 2.18 crore being achieved on September 17. On the other hand, in the initial few days in January and a couple of days in February, less than 50,000 doses were administered. As on October 16, more than 97.65 crore vaccine doses have been administered to over 69.47 crore people. More than 28.18 crore people are fully vaccinated now. This means that 74%, or close to three-fourths, of the adult population in India have received at least one dose, while 30% have got both doses.
- Statewide differences: States with smaller populations have a much better coverage of coverage of Covid-19 vaccination. In states such as Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Goa, and in the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Chandigarh, and Lakshadweep, almost every individual above the age of 18 has already received at least one dose of vaccine. These states also have the highest proportion of fully-vaccinated people — over 40% each in the case of Lakshadweep, Sikkim and Ladakh. Some of the larger states, with much larger populations, such as Gujarat, Kerala, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand have also managed to vaccinate over 90% of their adult population with at least one dose. Among the higher-population states, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu have all achieved less than 70% coverage for first dose. Between 17% and 25% of their population have received the second dose.
- No urban-rural divide: The requirement to get vaccinated in order to attend work or to travel, or even shop, coupled with relatively lower vaccine hesitancy, could have played a role in a large number of people getting the shots. In most major cities, the proportion of people who have received both doses is fairly uniform and, in general, higher than the national average of 30% (see chart, Vaccination in major cities).
- In the rural areas, the situation is slightly different. A huge variation in vaccine coverage is visible in these districts. The proportion of fully vaccinated people (out of the adult population as per Census 2011) ranges from less than 8% in districts such as Tiruvannamalai in Tamil Nadu or Balrampur in Chhattisgarh, to close to 80% in Ramban in Jammu and Kashmir, and Raigarh in Chhattisgarh.
- But there is no evidence to suggest that rural areas, in general, are lagging behind in vaccinations. The coverage of the second dose is about 30%, at par with national average. There does not seem to be a sharp urban-rural divide in terms of vaccination coverage.
- Summary: There is still a steep climb ahead. If India is realistically aiming to fully vaccinate its entire adult population by the end of 2021, it means an additional 90 crore doses to be administered between now and December 31. In September, India administered over 23.5 crore vaccine doses, the highest for any month. It would have to do significantly better now. Vaccination may have already played a key role in limiting the spread of the disease. India’s daily count of cases had dropped from a peak of over 4 lakh to 50,000 within 45 days between May and June. For the next three months, it remained within a range of 25,000-50,000. In October this number finally began sliding down rapidly, to less than 20,000 daily. The vaccination coverage is reaching a critical stage. It does seem to prevent the disease from taking a serious turn.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) What are the various lessons learnt by India in the Covid vaccine struggle? (2) What went wrong with Indian planning of vaccines, since 2020? List and explain. (3) What are the estimates about Covid becoming an endemic? Explain.
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