The time has come for a comprehensive reframing of national security policy, in light of technological change.
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India's National Security Policy - Time to evolve
- The story: Since 2000, national security concepts have undergone major changes. These changes reveal that a large country, in terms of size of geography, population and GDP, will not deter any country. Why not? Cyber warfare has reduced the deterrent value of "sizes" since cyber weaponry will be available even to small island countries, and the capacity to cause devastation to a large nation by cyber warfare is a reality. Add to that many new and emerging technologies like weapons in space, nano weapons and more, and you get a fairly clear idea of what lies ahead.
- As time passed: Various innovations in weapons moved from stones in the pre-historic era, to bows and arrows, and later to cannons and guns in the 19th century. Then came the aeroplanes, nuclear bombs, and intercontinental missiles in the 20th century. Finally, in the 21st century, the world is moving to cyber weapons-based warfare which will immobilise current tangible advanced weapon systems in a war.
- As cybertechnology enters as an important variable in nations’ defence policies, the size of a country will cease to matter.
- To put it roughly, Sri Lanka, or North Korea, empowered by cybertechnology, will be equal to the United States, Russia, India or China, in their capability to cause unacceptable damage.
- Nature of changes: These fundamental changes are due to the earlier 20th century innovations in cybertechnology and software developments. Drones, robots, satellites and advanced computers as weapons are already in use now. Maybe in another 10 years, soldiers at the borders will be replaced by machines. Some examples of further innovations are artificial intelligence and nanotechnology. Warfare will be no more just mobilisation of weapons or be dependent on the size of the armed forces of men. From remote controlled drones to artificial intelligence driven weapons systems, 21st century will witness a different realm of warfare.
- Change the scope of national security: National security in the 21st century covers not merely the overt and covert operations but, more crucially, electronic operations from a remote centre beyond the front lines of ground forces or air power to track enemy assets by these newly weaponised cyber instruments of technology. And that needs a new thought process altogether.
- The starkest example of this was when China, in October 2020, publicly cautioned Indians to sit up and take notice by using cybertechnology to shut down Mumbai’s electric supply in populated areas of the city, for a few hours.
- Clearly, each nation will have to prepare more for bilateral conflicts in the 21st century that are based on cyber warfare rather than in multilateral acts of conventional war or rely on military blocs for mobilisation.
- Four dimensions: National security at its root in the 21st century will depend on skills in four dimensions:
- Objectives - the objective of the National Security Policy in the 21st century is to define what assets are required to be defended, the identity of opponents who seek to overawe the people of a target nation, by unfamiliar moves to cause disorientation of people. Although the novel coronavirus is perhaps accidental, it has destabilised nations globally, and also derailed the global economy because no one was prepared for it. Two years of the pandemic have left several millions dead with most economies having been driven to the edge of disaster. This is a preview of the kinds of threats that await us in the coming decades which a national security policy will have to address by choosing a nation’s priorities.
- Priorities - In such scenarios of uncertainties about the future in the 21st century, national security priorities will require new departments for supporting several frontiers of innovation and technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells, desalination of seawater, thorium for nuclear technology, anti-computer viruses, and new immunity-creating medicines. This focus on a new priority will require compulsory science and mathematics education, especially in applications for analytical subjects. Every citizen will have to be alerted to new remote controlled military technology and be ready for it.
- Strategy - The strategy required for this new national security policy will be to anticipate our enemies in many dimensions and by demonstrative but limited pre-emptive strikes by developing a strategy of deterrence of the enemy. For India, it will be the China cyber capability factor which is the new threat for which it has to devise a new strategy. The agenda for the new strategy will be critical and emerging technologies, connectivity and infrastructure, cyber security and maritime security.
- Resource mobilisation - The macroeconomics of resource mobilisation depends on whether a nation has ‘demand’ as an economic deficit or not. That means, for example, if demand for a commodity or service is in deficit or insufficient to clear the market of the available supply of the same, then liberal printing of currency and placing it in the hands of consumers is recommended for the economy to recover the demand supply parity. This then is one way of facilitating resource mobilisation in a demand supply balanced market. If it is ‘supply’ that is short or in deficit compared to demand, then special measures are required to incentivise to encourage an increase in supply. Macroeconomics has many ways to generate resources without taxation.
- Summary: The scope of national security in the 21st century will now be nothing like it was in previous centuries. India needs to gear up with a modern mindset, and a clear vision. The inability to do so will extract a heavy cost.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the way scientific breakthroughs will impact the concept of national security. (2) Speculate on the nature of warfare in the 21st century. (3) What five changes would you propose in the Indian national security architecture, going forward? List and analyse.
#nationalsecurity #cyberwarfare #nanotechnology #armies
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