Indian options at the Sino-India border - Dangerous turn

China's rising belligerence on the LAC border makes things difficult for the coming months.

 Indian options at the Sino-India border - Dangerous turn

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• The story: The winters of 2021 in the deserts of Ladakh will give no respite to Chinese and Indian troops, deployed against each other. Tactically, there's calm, but the climate is killing. China has moved out at least four commanders due to health reasons in past year.
• Why not deinduct forces: So the Chinese PLA could have started deinducting forces from Ladakh, but it did not. PLA is not interested in going back.

1. Verbally they are attacking, and physically they are making infrastructure, inducting equipment, and doing more military exercises
2. Other than Ladakh, they are doing it in the middle and eastern sectors of the LAC (3488 km long)
3. Barahoti in Uttarakhand is disputed, and PLA incursion in August 2021 was a signal (despite it being a demilitarised zone)
4. PLA incursions in Arunachal are now more in frequency and duration, and there's the risk of unintended escalation

• Why so aggressive: There are two reasons -

1. The PLA is losing primacy to its Air Force and Navy, which are the key to South China Sea and Taiwan. Since the only major boundary dispute is now with India (others being resolved), the PLA is asserting itself to stay relevant in Chinese political system.
2. The PLA has noticed Indian Army registering a greater presence in "Chinese territory" in past decade, ever since the UPA govt. announced border infra creation, and Indian troops started going into areas that they earlier didn't. The Doklam 2017 stand-off alarmed the PLA, when they saw Indian troops enter Bhutan and reach territory claimed by China! What Mao said of India in 1959 is now being repeated - "put it in its place".

• Asymmetric power: Indian Army has been accumulating weapons systems along the LAC, but the sheer asymmetry with PLA is huge. Indian troops are far more experienced in hostile climate conditions, and the Chinese challenge is formidable.

1. Indian Army had a defensive posture against PLA that worked for 30 years till 2020 happened
2. New deployments are trying to recreate that deterrence
3. The goal for Indian Army is to ensure that the PLA does not get an outright victory, and as a far superior power, that would be enough loss of face for China

• What's affecting Indian Defence: The Indian economy's slowdown since 2017, and poor handling of Covid, has affected overall resources that can be generated for military modernisation.

1. In 2016, it was estimated that the IAF needed 60 fighter jet squadrons by 2020, for a two-front war with Pakistan and China; it's down to 30 now
2. Indian Navy's plea for another aircraft carrier is rejected, as funds fall short
3. Vintage equipment is very high in Army now, and the asymmetry with PLA is rising so fast, that soon India and China may be fighting two different generations of war!

• Divisive politics: The ruling party's politics is divisive in nature, which is directly affecting its foreign policy in the neighbourhood.

1. The ceasefire with Pakistan was brokered by UAE, but broke down fast, as Kashmir policies came in the way
2. That reignited the threat of a two front war
3. The new half front for Indian Army in Kashmir - due to local youth willing to pick up the gun - is a huge distraction
4. The fight with Bangladesh on communal conflicts, the turmoil on Mizoram border due to incoming Myanmar refugees - all these are weakening India and giving China the edge

• What about the Quad: India's presence in the Quad has not truly led to external rebalancing of power, as there's no hard power agenda of the Quad so far. That has gone to AUKUS, the trilateral between Australia, US and UK. India needs the US more now, to prepare for Sino-Indian military crisis, than US needs India.
• Zero checks and balances: The present government has no institutional checks and balances left at all, that affects the quality of decision-making.

1. For months, the govt. and PM himself denies any Chinese incursions inside Indian borders, and rejected the idea that Indian soldiers were in Chinese captivity
2. That helped the govt. escape any political accountability, and it forced the Parliament to ask no questions on this topic either
3. Media is totally complicit in the cover-up, and government is getting no genuine feedback that comes from truth
4. The final cost will be unimaginable, as India gives China more confidence to engage in mischief!

• Denials and bluster: The govt. swings between denials and bluster, and claims it will ensure status quo ante on LAC, to pre May 2020 level. That has not happened till date. Indian troops have lot a lot of patrolling rights, even as PLA has stayed inside Indian territory in Depsang, Hot Springs and Demchok.
• Summary: India has to now prepare for all eventualities on the Sino-Indian border. The Chinese are in no mood to relent.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the government's overall approach to handling the Sino-Indian border situation. (2) What is the PLA's goal in keeping the borders troubled? Explain strategically. (3) What are the internal problems in Indian politics that are now causing a serious impact on India's foreign policy? Explain.

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