India in the present global order - Flux and change

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A lot is changing in world politics, and India can find new opportunities if it plays the game well.

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 India in the present global order - Flux and change

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

  • The story: The world seems adrift today, with neither a bipolar Cold War going on, nor a clear multipolar world. Perhaps it is tending towards a world of several power centres. It is a world between orders. The lack of a coherent international response to the COVID-19 pandemic is proof of an absence of international order and of the ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions.
  • Economic stagnation: Economies around the world are not growing the way they used to. Some call it "Secular stagnation". Then there's the regionalisation of trade, and a shifting balance of power, the rise of China and others, and structural China-United States rivalry. The centre of power is shifting from the Atlantic region to Asia. The information age is getting polarised. And finally, there's the climate crisis that confronts all.
  • Asia at the centre: In the coming years, Asia will witness many geopolitical rivalries, and U.S. will remain the most formidable power. China’s crowded geography puts many constraints on her. It is unlikely that a Chinese hegemony will prevail in Asia, but it surely will rise more. India and China will see a mix of confrontation and cooperation. With Taiwan, some form of violence may emerge, but it will not spiral into anything beyond the region.
  • What India can do: The uncertainty poses challenges to Indian policymakers, but throws up opportunities too, enhancing India's strategic options. Increasing security congruence with the U.S. can enable growing cooperation in fields significant for India’s transformation: energy, trade, investment, education and health.
  1. Other areas for India and U.S. cooperation are: climate change and energy, on tech solutions for renewable energy, and on digital cooperation. Several middle powers are now India’s natural partners.
  2. There is the possibility of working with partners in the developing world building broader coalitions on issues of common interest, say in the digital space.
  3. India can consider the creation of a Maritime Commission, a Bay of Bengal Initiative with partner countries, and increasing what we do with South East Asia in maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism. We should aim for multipolarity in Asia.
  • Non-Alignment: The way forward may be on the core strategic principles in Non-Alignment 2.0 - independent judgement, developing our capacities, and creating an equitable and enabling international order for India’s transformation.
  • What about South Asia: India must try reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). It can be the primary source of both prosperity and security in the neighbourhood — the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean Region. India cannot permanently let trade go underground, thereby enabling large-scale entry of Chinese goods destroying local industry in the northeast. India's effort has to concentrate on self-strengthening.
  • Atmanirbhar: Many steps can help both transform India, and push its power abroad. Economic policy must match political and strategic engagement. A more active regional and international role for India is incompatible with a position on the margins of the global economy. Self-reliance in today’s world and technologies can only be realised as part of the global economy.
  • Summary: It is only through a rapid strengthening of economy, that India can project its hard power (and soft power) abroad.
  • EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the changes in today's geopolitics that impinge on India's strategy. (2) What are the emerging dyamics in India - China relationship? Explain.
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PT's IAS Academy: India in the present global order - Flux and change
India in the present global order - Flux and change
A lot is changing in world politics, and India can find new opportunities if it plays the game well.
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