The COP26 is arriving, and India has its task cut out.
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Climate crisis, COP26 and Greenhouse emissions
- COP26 meet: The Heads of state from at least 120 countries will meet in Glasgow UK for the 26th meeting of the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP). They will meet when the world is in the midst of an unprecedented climate crisis. The COP26 is the 26th iteration of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the UK will share the presidency with Italy.
- Why important: Year 2021's COP is the most significant climate meeting since 2015, when the Paris Agreement was launched. A first version of the guidelines known as the ‘rulebook’ was worked out in past meetings, but so far countries have been unable to agree on important points. Countries will be expected to raise their climate ambitions, updating the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Not many may do that, actually.
- Rulebook under discussion: Many topics are hot.
- Carbon markets - Developing countries, esp. India, China and Brazil, gained significantly from the carbon market under CDMof Kyoto Protocol. India registered 1,703 projects under CDM which is the second highest in the world. The ratification of the Paris Agreement would change the scenario of carbon markets. Targets for developing countries will be discussed. The rich world wants these to be upped. CDM transition, Accounting rules and Share of Proceeds (SOP) to the Adaptation Fund are other hot issues related to carbon markets.
- Emission cut pledges - In 2015, countries have agreed to cut GHG emissions to 2 degrees Celsius and ideally 1.5 degree Celsius. The deadline for countries to make steeper emission cut pledges is this year and major emitters like China and India have not yet come forward with strengthened NDCs. There is tremendous pressure on India to do so.
- Fossil fuels production - The UN has called upon the OECD countries to phase out coal by 2030 but environment ministers from G20 economies have not agreed on a timeline. Energy shortage in 2021 showed the problems in green transition, and the need to go a bit slow.
- Finance - Developed countries pledged to raise $100 billion per year till 2020 to assist developing countries in dealing with the effects of climate change but it has not yet been achieved.
- Net zero – The issue of net-zero or carbon neutrality was not mentioned in the Paris Agreement. More than 50 countries have pledged to carbon-neutrality by middle of the century. China has said it would achieve this status by 2060. Several other developing countries including India have also been resisting such targets as developed countries are responsible for over 75% of accumulated atmospheric GHGs. The IPCC AR6 emphasised that to keep temperature rise within 1.5°C, global emissions should be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, on the way to net zero 2050.
- 2030 targets - The IPCC has called for 2030 emissions to be 45% less from 2010 levels for the 1.5°C goal. Many countries have not yet updated their NDC targets and the report calls for a significant increase in the level of ambition of NDCs” till 2030.
- Reducing greenhouse gases top priority: India will reiterate its commitment of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions at the United Nations climate conference to be held in Glasgow between October 31 and November 12, but may also insist that wealthy nations take stronger action to curtail emissions so that developing countries like India have room to grow. It has said it would install 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030 and has internally announced that 30% of all private vehicles will run on electricity by that year.
- India might agree to net-zero emissions sometime after 2050. Net zero refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere. It entails reductions in the use of coal, oil and gas, and corresponding increase in carbon sequestration efforts like planting trees.
- India wants the developed world should transition to net zero far earlier, say by 2030, leaving some carbon space for emerging economies like India.
- Many western nations such as France, the UK and Denmark, among others, will have net-zero emissions by 2050. Russia and China have also announced plans to be carbon neutral by 2060. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, will reach zero-net emissions by 2060. India’s climate negotiators have held meetings with relevant ministries and on October 6 held consultations with non-government organisation working in the area of climate change. Many of these institutions have asked environment minister Bhupender Yadav that India should negotiate on the use of remaining carbon budget.
- By 2030, the US would have appropriated around 17.7% of the world’s total carbon budget, and China’s emissions will be between 29.5% of global emissions between 2012 and 2030, compared to 6.5% for India. In this way, by 2030, over 80% to 100% of the available carbon budget will be occupied with hardly any room for India and African countries… Therefore, India and other developing countries must stake claim to the remaining carbon space.
- India could consider supporting a global net zero by 2050, which is achieved in consonance with the principles of UNFCCC, particularly common but differentiated responsibilities and equity.
- Summary: India has to push ahead with a growth trajectory that does not sacrifice its economic ambitions.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the four major items on the COP26 agenda, 2021. (2) What are the various ways India can contribute to the net zero target for the world? Why is India reluctant to announce its own target? Explain.
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