Centre, Please Step In

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 Centre, Please Step In

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• LLs have arrived: India is witnessing localised lockdowns in major urban centres and industrial hubs, hitting the national economy very hard. The Centre is silently watching the green shoots being trampled.
• 40 crore under LLs: Of the 137 crore Indians, more than 40 cr are under some type of a lockdown. Despite a great agricultural scenario today, it is not the rural but urban economy alone that will pull the GDP ahead. The many LLs may damage the GDP figures very badly for 2020-21.
• End results: The multiple LLs will slow the economy down drastically. There is no scientific data to prove that LLs slow down the infection spread at all. Delhi never imposed a citiwide lockdown, and after a spike when lockdown was lifte, the numbers have come down again. Mumbai's numbers rose during the severe lockdown (of many weeks). There just is no direct link.
• So why have LLs: In new hotspots (Bengaluru, Chennai, Pune, Thane etc.), the reason administration is going for LLs is due to -
1. These are blunt, hard instruments, so loved by the Indian state
2. Low testing is leading to blunt impositions, and not micro-level lockdowns.
• Original idea: It was said that once a national lockdown was done with, small local-level containment zones would be created, but not anymore. The central govt. must step in right now. States must be counselled about derailment of national economic engine due to LLs. Only way out is ramped-up testing and small containment zones.
• Existential questions: Poor economic conditions arising out of these LLs will completely destroy fiscal position of states. State borrowings are already at high levels, and what they get from centre depends on what activity levels they have. The GST collections will drop sharply too. LLs will shrink the national revenue pie. End result - welfare spendings to drop.
• The light will dawn: With each week, it will become clearer that infections are not being contained by the lockdowns! The Chief Ministers will be presiding over horrifying numbers, having exhuasted the biggest weapon - lockdown.
• Centre must act: It is the duty of the Centre to wisely counsel all states - BJP ruled or not - that they must cooperate in making rational decisions, and avoid panicking. Slowed economy will hurt Centre more than states. 

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