When the Arctic warms

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When the Arctic warms

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• The Arctic of ancient times: Students have always studied the Arctic as a frozen mystery, with a few polar bears and some fur-clad tribes. But by 2021, the entire region is melting away. Large chunks are falling into the sea, creating global challenges for all of us.
• Global warming's dramatic face: Arctic is warming up twice as fast as rest of the globe, and ice cap is shrinking fast. Sea ice has gone down by 75% since 1980s. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) that was once fantasy, connecting North Atlantic to North Pacific via the north pole, is coming true! Commercial vessels have started plying. By 2050, all ice may be gone in summer.
• Impact on climate: Loss of ice and warming waters will mean higher sea levels, more salinity and change in currents and rainfall. 

1. The permafrost has started thawing and Tundra returning to swamp
2. Sudden storms are hitting coastlines
3. Wildfires are raging in interior Canada and Russia
4. Arctic marine and plant life, accustomed to yearlong ice, is being hit. Species from lower latitudes are coming up
5. More human migration will worsen things

• Money to be made: The other side of the story is that opening of the Arctic means more money to be made, in shipping, energy, minerals and fisheries. Distances will be cut sharply as NSR becomes feasible. Huge oil, gas and rare Earth deposits will open up. 
• The good part: None of this is easy to do, as navigation is very tough, and only possible in summer. Technical problems include lack of deepwater ports, need for icebreakers, shortage of workers, high insurance costs, etc. Since mining here is very tough, perhaps proper regulatory norms may still be created for the region, for sustainable harvesting.
• Arctic not a global common: Since Antarctica is a global common, territorial disputes never arose, but that's not so here. There's no treaty governing the Arctic, but just the UNCLOS (UN Convention of Law of the Sea). Large parts of Arctic are under Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark (Greenland) and the US.

1. They can easily start exploiting resources legally
2. Strategic games have begun, as seen in overlapping claims on extended continental shelves, and right to seabed resources (Russia put its flag in 2007 on seabed below north pole!)

• Russian game: It has the longest Arctic coastline, 50% of its population, and a strategic policy too. It says that NSR falls inside its territorial waters (US says it's international), Russia will tax it. Russia has strengthened its navy and military in this region, and done an eastern Arctic exercise with China. 
• Chinese game: It wants the Polar Silk Road to be the BRI's extension, and has put in money into ports, energy, undersea infra etc. So the game is truly on.
• Indian game: India is far away, but given the long coastline, rising sea levels (due to Arctic warming) will make it tough for India soon. Even fisheries and monsoon will be impacted due to this. India must augment is scientific research in the Arctic, to sense better the fallout on the Third Pole, the Himalayas. Russia-China closeness needs to be monitored. India is an observer (since 2013) in the Arctic Council, and now needs a national strategy for its various aspects.

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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