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U.S. - China cooperation can be brought about by Climate Change
Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment
- A common enemy: In March 2021, a massive sandstorm enveloped Beijing. The sandstorm revived Chinese anxieties about creeping desertification—but it also offered up a small measure of hope for what has been until now a serious worsening of U.S.-China relations. The eerie orange cloud of Gobi Desert sand—Beijing’s worst sandstorm in a decade—was a wordless reminder that both sides face a common challenge they say they are determined to confront: global climate change.
- Bitter rivalry: In recent weeks, the Sino-U.S. relationship has been dominated by strident disagreements over trade, human rights, and Pacific security, as evidenced by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit this week to two key U.S. allies: Japan and South Korea. But in both Washington and Beijing, the climate portfolio is edging back into the limelight after a four-year-long hibernation. In Beijing, hints of something positive peeking through the distrust and disputes began last month when Beijing announced that Xie Zhenhua would come out of semi-retirement to be China’s new climate change guru.
- The two representatives: Xie will be the counterpart to John Kerry, President Joe Biden’s special presidential envoy for climate. And in the past, the two senior diplomats have enjoyed a close working relationship: Xie is known for helping broker the 2015 Paris climate accords, from which former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew in 2017. A former secretary of state and U.S. presidential candidate, Kerry called Xie a “leader” and “capable advocate” for China on the issue of climate change.
- Bilateral communication via climate talks: Chinese analysts say Xie’s appointment means climate talks could be a safe channel for bilateral communications, echoing the kinder, gentler tone of years past when a Sino-U.S. deal to cooperate on climate change was key to brokering the Paris accords. Xie’s return to a senior government post is unusual, given that he’s 71 years old, past the normal retirement age for his rank. After leading China’s global climate negotiations from 2007 to 2018, Xie continued to make policy proposals to higher-ups in his capacity as head of the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development.
- Xie has reminded Xi that providing basic environmental conditions, such as clean air and arable farmland, is not only in China’s interest but also part of the grand bargain that enables the ruling Chinese Communist Party to stay in power.
- Xie’s institute and other research organs also mapped out strategies for individual chunks of the bureaucracy, such as the electricity sector, to strive for net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide by 2050.
- President Xi Jinping himself recently began promoting “ecological civilization” and suggesting that a healthy environment will help make China great again.
- Quad emerging: Sino-U.S. tensions and rivalry dominate most headlines, ranging from credible reports of human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang region to military activities in the Pacific Ocean to trade and tech wars. Recently, senior U.S. officials described China as “the greatest long-term strategic threat to security in the 21st century” just before a virtual meeting among top leaders of the so-called Quad nations—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—which Beijing perceives to be a policy of encirclement. “Quad cannot replicate NATO” declared a headline in the Chinese newspaper the Global Times, which often reflects nationalistic voices.
- Carbon neutrality: Despite his aggressive nationalism on other fronts, Xi is the most important Chinese leader to embrace the new mantra that fighting climate change and seeking carbon neutrality is in Beijing’s own national interest. Xi startled observers in Sept 2020 when he unexpectedly declared to the United Nations General Assembly that Beijing was committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, with emissions peaking before 2030. Ever since this unprecedented pledge, Chinese bureaucrats have been scrambling to try to ensure their own statements—and job performances—are in sync.
- At the moment, Beijing’s 2060 carbon-neutrality target and its apparent short-term goals don’t quite seem to line up. Beijing’s near-term ambitions, as reflected in the five-year plan through 2025, are underwhelming.
- Business as usual could prevail until 2030, the year of peak carbon emissions, and then carbon dioxide emissions “are supposed to plummet from 2030 to 2060.”
- Coal dominates: Coal still accounted for 58 percent of China’s energy mix in 2019. And last year, Chinese entities proposed the construction of a staggering 73.5 gigawatts of new coal-powered plants—more than quintuple the rest of the world combined. While saying he hoped the U.S. could “work with China,” Kerry cited China’s continuing dependence on coal-fired plants and observed that “China has said they’re going to do something by 2060, but we don’t have a clue really yet how they’re going to get there.” Yet one thing has changed. After Xi’s pledge before the U.N., China’s central government is now pressuring provinces to comply.
- Inner Mongolia: For years, Chinese authorities have worried that climate change is overtaking formerly forested areas and leading to desertification, especially in Inner Mongolia. During the March 2021 Parliament session, Xi met the Inner Mongolia delegation, described its arid region as an “ecological security barrier” in north China, and identified “deserts” for the first time in a string of natural habitats that China should protect.
- Biden's position: For his part, Biden cannot afford to seem soft on China by relaxing Trump’s tough approach. Nor is Xi inclined to make concessions. His support at home has grown with the perception that Beijing has vanquished COVID-19 more quickly than many countries in the West. On the sidelines of China’s annual Parliament session in early March 2021, Xi declared that China can now look the world in the eye, unlike back “when we were still bumpkins.”
- Summary: That suggests no dramatic breakthroughs are expected any time soon. Even this week’s meeting location has a whiff of carefully negotiated calibration about it. Anchorage is on U.S. soil, but it also happens to be closer to Beijing than to Washington. And Alaska’s glaciers are melting at a record rate due to climate change, silently reminding both sides it may be time to meet halfway.
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