Three terms that misdefined 2020

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Three terms that misdefined 2020

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• Three terms of 2020: The year 2020 in the USA saw excessive use of terms like "witch hunt", "black swan" and "exponential". These were used by President Donald Trump regularly, starting with his impeachment trial, and moving on to Covid-19 response. Many people do not know the true meaning of these terms.
• Understanding 'Witch Hunt': Early modern Europe started this, and it went to colonial America. Anyone accused of practising witchcraft was persecuted, and thousands killed (executed) between 1400 to 1782. In America, the Salem witch trials saw 19 hanged in 1693. 
• Modern 20th c. use: The Americans saw its frenzied use in the 20th century when Senator McCarthy began the madness of hunting down communists inside the USA. But there are differences, as communists did exist in 20th c. in USA. Also, in both cases, people started the hunt by assuming that witches and communists both were indeed 'guilty'. When Trump used this term, no one was assuming he was guilty, and everyone knew he would be put to a fair trial, if at all.
• The Al Capone case, 1931: Federal officers charged the big mafia don Al Capone in 1931 with tax evasion, and that wasn't a witch hunt at all. Rule of Law was applied. 
• Understanding 'Black Swan': The pandemic in 2020 was called a black swan by many, as it spread worldwide. The 2007 book by Nassim Taleb made this term popular, as it had described the 2007-09 crisis well. But Taleb meant that black swan is an event not even considered possible by anyone. 

1. Actual swans are usually white, and most authors in 18th and 19th centuries didn't know that Dutch explorers had seen black swans in Australia in 1697. 
2. The idea is that facts from other places and centuries ought to be taken into account by policymakers to get the full picture.
3. The 2020 pandemic was always a possibility, only one ignored by most policymakers. So it really wasn't a black swan though it seemed so to many.
4. A real 'black swan' event is one that's a tail event - one with a dangerous possibility if it happens, at all.

• Understanding 'exponential': Most use this to mean 'rapid'. That is not a precise use, as this is a mathematical term, and doesn't mean rapid. 

1. Exponential growth doesn't mean high growth
2. Money in bank can change exponentially due to compound interest, but it also go negative (as in Europe today)
3. Covid parlance included this term, and it was being used correctly, to refer to no. of infections. Each infected fellow infected many more.
4. This ratio is R (average rate of reproduction of the virus), and R0 means in a population with no immunity and no counter-measures. If R is more than 1, things get worse. If R goes below 1 (more face masks, distancing, hand washing, testing, isolation, vaccination), the pandemic ends.

• Summary: Using terms after technically understanding them is a source of correctness, and joy!

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