The long and the short of India's Naypyitaw dilemma

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The long and the short of India's Naypyitaw dilemma

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• Myanmar's power struggle: The long tension in Naypyitaw is now over, with the junta led by General Min Aung Hlaing dashing all hopes for democracy. Myanmar is also sandwiched between China and India, in local geopolitical terms. 
• A weak democracy: Indeed, Myanmar wasn't a proper democracy ever, and its poor handling of minority rights proved it. Future is still more uncertain, and Western sanctions may lead to new political formations. The West may have no choice but to rely on Aung San Suu Kyi, despite her weak performance on human rights issues in recent years. The Army had cracked down violently on Muslim Rohingyas, and she sided with the Army.
• Forgetting the ICJ: So the case against Myanmar's government at the International Court of Justice, on the plight of helpless Rohingyas, would recede into the background. Global support will come for Ms Suu Kyi, further diminishing the Rohingyas' prospects.
• Tatmadaw's own game: This coup is custom-designed only for the Tatmadaw (Army), and the immediate interests of everyone stand hurt (China, India, the West). They were all working in Myanmar in their own ways so far. If the West gets aggressive with the Tatmadaw, it will no doubt swing towards the Chinese. 
• The fact: The Generals do not have major international interests, and the overall system is inward-looking, so sanctions won't hit hard. But they will seek Chinese cover for their actions. 

1. For China, it's a problem as it was cultivating Ms Suu Kyi in recent times, who was keen too as she was facing Western rebukes. 
2. Now if the Army swings towards China, it will benefit China the most as it has no scruples about democracy and human rights.
3. The Tatmadaw hasn't been a fan of China, generally.

• Indian case: It's most tough for India to respond to this coup, as till date there were two power centres and India could easily manage Western concerns. It had engaged both. And it was not tough to choose between norms and interests - Ms Suu Kyi's politics wasn't faultless, and Indian national interests weren't hurt by the Tatmadaw. But the Feb 2021 coup changed it all.
• The dilemma: Indian national interest now means engaging with the Tatmadaw, but to openly support the junta would upset the West and USA. And India cannot upset the junta by asking for restoration of democracy. After all, for many years, while Suu Kyi was drawing closer to China, the Army was sceptical of it! India may prefer interests over norms now, on the whole. (unlike earlier when it pushed for democracy)
• Insurgency issue: The junta has helped India tackle the north-eastern insurgencies by allowing Indian Army to pursue insurgents across the border. Both Armies coordinated well with each other.
• The Rohingya question: The Army may now pursue them more violently, leading to serious human rights abuses. Then, there will be the inevitable rise of extremism, bad for everyone in the region. 
• Summary: India has to continue talking to the Tatmadaw, while silently pushing for democracy. Improving trade and connectivity will remain in focus.

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