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The West Bengal elections - Didi versus Modi
Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment
- The story: The Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, India’s only woman chief minister, swept the West Bengal assembly polls for the third time, winning 213 of the 292 seats that went to polls in the state, in a sign of the continued assertion of regional parties in Indian politics, and a major setback to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP had thrown in everything at West Bengal, in a bid to win it.
- Bengali sub-nationalism trumps BJP's push: Riding on a mix of welfare delivery, Bengali sub-nationalism, Banerjee’s own popularity and connect with the grassroots, and substantial minority consolidation, the TMC won.
- Mamata Banerjee lost her own fiercely fought assembly battle in Nandigram by a narrow margin, to her former colleague and aide-turned-BJP leader, Suvendu Adhikari.
- She is returning as CM, so will have to contest and win an election within six months, as constitutionally stipulated, to remain CM. The TMC has sought a recount in Nandigram, and alleged that local returning officer was threatened to not go for a recount.
- Nature of Bengal polls: They were marked by intense competition, political violence, charges of partisanship of institutions, and crowded rallies even as the second wave of Covid-19 hit India. The BJP, despite a well-resourced and high-profile campaign led by PM arendra Modi himself, the promise of greater industrialization and welfare and strategy of majority Hindu consolidation, fell way short of its projected claim of winning 200 seats. It emerged as the primary opposition, winning 77 seats (a jump from 3 seats it won in the 2016 assembly polls, but a dip from its tally in the Lok Sabha polls of 2019, which translated into leads in 121 assembly constituencies). The Left parties and the Congress failed to win a single seat.
- What about other states: Among other states, the results were marked by both continuity and change.
- Tamil Nadu - In the first state elections held after former chief ministers M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa died, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, under M.K. Stalin, won 133 (DMK alone) out of the state’s 234 seats. The DMK returns to power after a decade, riding on a degree of anti-incumbency, Stalin’s leadership, alliances, and severe unease with the BJP. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam performed better than expected with 66 seats, with chief minister E.K. Palaniswami winning his seat.
- Kerala - Breaking a four-decade-old trend, where power has alternated between the two of the state’s major political formations, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Pinarayi Vijayan made history by comfortably returning to power for a second consecutive time. The win was likely due to the government’s focused management of Covid and Nipah outbreaks, as well as floods, during its term. The Left won 99 of the Kerala assembly’s 140 seats, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) a distant second with 41 seats. Former Congress president, Rahul Gandhi, is a parliamentarian from the state and had extensively campaigned for the UDF.
- Assam - The BJP did well here, and returned to power despite a united opposition, for a second time, under the leadership of CM Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma. The BJP relied on the government’s welfare schemes and communal polarization, where it accused the Congress and the All India United Democratic Front of being sympathetic to illegal Muslim immigrants.
- Puducherry - The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) also crossed the majority mark in the Union territory of Puducherry, and the BJP will be a part of the coalition government in the UT for the first time.
- Overall meaning: The results are being seen as a setback for both national parties (BJP and INC), with the BJP failing to achieve its stated aim in West Bengal and the Congress failing to win a single state on its own and witnessing a further erosion of its base.
- The BJP’s eastern march has been significantly challenged.
- Despite her loss in Nandigram, Mamata Banerjee has secured her place as a potential leader of opposition in 2024.
- Regional satraps rule - the Left’s win in Kerala, the DMK’s triumph in Tamil Nadu, and Trinamool’s victory in Bengal show the sheer diversity of India's opposition.
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