The Next 'Asian Miracle'

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 The Next 'Asian Miracle'

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment


  • Vietnam's Covid experience: In January 2020, Vietnam realised the danger it faced from China's spreading pandemic, and aggressively set about informing its 10 crore citizens to trace carriers and their contacts (and contacts of contacts of contacts). Their death rate is now just 1 per million, one of the four lowest worldwide.
  • Back to business: Hence, Vietnam went back to business very rapidly. It'll be the fastest growing economy for 2020-21 (~ 3%), and will see record trade surplus despite collapsing world trade. So Vietnam now is following the path taken by Japan, then Taiwan and finally China, from 1945 onwards (till 2010).
  • What's changed: Globalisation is surely in reverse for now, and US is angry with tactics that give developing nations an edge e.g. currency manipulation. US Trade War with China was due to this allegation only.
  • Asian miracle: The Asian miracle economies maintained strong exports growth for many decades, at times of upto 20% p.a., and Vietnam is now following the same route (since 30 years actually). Past ten years have been remarkable for it. That pushed its per capita income to $3000, higher than India's. 
  • A lesson for India: The usual debate about how to balance the need to spend on social sector versus infrastructure seems settled in Vietnam's case. It has very few poor, and infrastructure is unusually good. People living on less than $2 per day is now just 5% (earlier 60%). Govt. investment in infrastructure (ports, roads) is at 8% of GDP. So, rapid income growth has mean faster human development. (India is missing out on the latter part, and now on the former one, too)
  • Preferred destination: Manufacturers leaving China are going to Vietnam first, for cheap labour (wages are half that of China). Since spending on schools is good, quality of workforce is better too. So, Vietnam is "moving up the ladder" faster than anyone else. In 2015, technology goods surpassed textiles and clothing as leading export item. 
  • Communist Vietnam: The country is a champion of free trade, having signed many FTAs, and one in 2020 with the EU! (FTA - Free Trade Agreement)
  • Can the miracle continue: Vietnam's working age population growth is slowing, but since most live in the countryside, moving them to the urban factories is still possible. Growth and exports can indeed continue. The threat is something else - autocratic communist rule (that has delivered good results so far but may falter ahead).
  • Communism without its excesses: The 50-year rule of Vietnamese communists has seen none of the excesses. It has privatised many government firms, but the ones remaining are huge, and hold bad loans of the banking system, and account for 1/3rd of total economic output. Trouble may begin at this point as it happened with Japan, S Korea and Taiwan. But for now, Vietnam is growing, and growing well!
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              PT's IAS Academy: The Next 'Asian Miracle'
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The Next 'Asian Miracle'
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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