The Afghanistan involvement of US

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  The Afghanistan involvement of US

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  • The Story: After the terror attacks it experienced on Sept 11, 2001, the US led a global counter-terrorism (CT) campaign in response. The US-led airstrikes removed the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001 and helped in creating, training, equipping and assisting local security forces. The goal was to ensure a democratic transition.
  • What happened: After this, Afghanistan was able to write a new democratic constitution and invited the UN missions. The earnest build-up of the Afghan forces started around 2009, when the Taliban posed a serious threat across Afghanistan. In the same year, the US declared a surge of troops and promised withdrawal by 2014. By January 2015, all security responsibilities were handed over to Afghan forces and US troops reduced to 10,000. But the war did not end as Afghan forces were still ill-experienced and ISIS was expanding its footprint across the globe. So a NATO-led Train-Advise-Assist Mission commenced for Afghan forces, while the US CT mission also continued in partnership with Afghan Forces.
  • Reducing US footprint: The US correctly assessed that Al Qaeda in Afghanistan stood degraded and ISIS and Al Qaeda networks were scattered across the globe. The threat of the caliphate was over by 2016, and the threat of genuine ISIS taking root in Afghanistan was reduced due to the US-Afghan partnership.
    1. Over the past seven years, Afghan forces got evolved and they started to conduct most operations on their own.
    2. US signed the Doha agreement in February 2020, for a full withdrawal, hoping that Taliban would agree to be part of an interim government.
    3. As new players are in the peace process, including Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar, the US made the smart move to approach the UN to broker peace.
    4. However, it appears unlikely that China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran will send troops to fight the Taliban under a peacekeeping mission.
  • So can the US really leave: Due to the current geopolitical compulsions-US-China competition, China-Pakistan embrace, China-Russia strategic partnership, and China-Iran deal- Afghanistan has become strategically important. Thus, despite US withdrawal, there will be shadow of US-NATO in the region with a focus on preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven.
  • Afghanistan 2.0: In the expected Afghanistan 2.0 engagement, it is quite clear that Afghanistan is part of the US-led Coalition against ISIS. The Afghan government will take a sovereign decision to ask for training or operational support and the US has sufficient resources in the Central Command theatre on land, sea, and air. It will provide immediate support on request and has the option of drone strikes in Afghanistan and beyond. The US will retain its soft power over Afghan institutions and personalities.
  • Learning: The UN-led peace process is expected to be slow, and it is certain that the Taliban-ISKP-Pakistan will unleash much more violence. This chaos would create more ungoverned spaces strengthening the terror infrastructure. Hence, the developments in Afghanistan will continue to raise security concerns, far beyond South Asia.
  • Summary: China has built links with the Taliban since 2005, understanding well that it must remain in Taliban's good books, if they are to look away from the condition of Uighurs in Xinjiang province.
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PT's IAS Academy: The Afghanistan involvement of US
The Afghanistan involvement of US
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