Tackling China in Ladakh

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 Tackling China in Ladakh

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• Proving GoI wrong: What the government claimed initially about Ladakh developments took a violent incident to disprove. The govt. must recalibrate its entire strategy now.
• Chain of events in April-June 2020: It's a long sequence.
• On April 19, Chinese heavy vehicles moved into the LAC region from south (Chumar, Demchok) to centre (Chushul, Pangong Tso) to north (Galwan, Depsang).

1. Indian Army considered this as a regular springtime exercise (big mistake)
2. Chinese artillery guns appeared everywhere soon! India's northern tip is the Depsang Plains, that ends in Karakoram Pass, and Chinese assets appeared there as well.
3. On May 5, PLA soldiers entered Galwan Valley pushing the Indian soldiers. They dominated the DSDBO road (255 km long). 
4. On May 9, PLA ingressed at Naku La pass in Sikkim, cross the international border! Indian Army blocked it 2 km inside India.
5. On May 17/18, the PLA came into the Pangong Tso lake region, and stopped Indians at "Finger 4", 8 km inside Indian-claimed LAC. They occupied the "Finger Heights" too.
6. At all these places, the Chinese have fortified their positions (they will stay on). And latest in June third week - PLA is building two roads in Daulat Beg Oldi, many kms inside Indian territory.

• Nature of Sino-Indian border: The LAC is not a well-defined line at all. It is neither delineated (put on a map) nor demarcated (marked on the ground). Both India and China patrol their assumed regions of control. They criss-cross each other in some areas. Five major Sino-Indian agreements had ensured peace till now.

1. Agreements that kept peace: 
2. 1993 - The Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (BPTA) is the mother agreement
3. 1996 - Supplemented the 1993 agreement, with confidence-building measures
4. 2005 - SOPs for patrols coming into contact
5. 2012 - Processes for consultation and co-operation
6. 2013 - Border Defence Cooperation Agreement

• Exchanging LAC maps: The agreements clearly indicate the need to settle the issue permanently, and the exchange of maps to achieve it. But China refuses to do it, as keeping things ambiguous helps it. Year 2020 is different, though.
• A problem in Indian patrolling: India always stays a bit short of the LAC, and goes only upto the PPs (patrolling points). Chinese go right upto their LAC. Why? India wanted to avoid provoking them.
• Chinese gameplan: It is clear that the PLA wants to usurp this unpatrolled gap between the LAC and PPs. Indian claim to Finger 8 on Pangong-Tso was too close to the Xinjiang-Tibet highway, and hence they have occupied territory beyond Finger 8. They may finally withdraw from here, while retaining the heights overlooking the DSDBO road.
• India's options: India must retaliate on multiple fronts - military, strategic, diplomatic and economic. The 1986 aggression shown by India when Arunachal Pradesh was declared a full state (when PLA occupied Sumdoron Chu) must be repeated now in 2020. In recent years post-Wuhan (2018), India went very soft on Tibet, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and COVID-19. That is hurting India badly now.

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