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Reviving the Iran Nuclear Deal
Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment
- Putting life into the dead: Preident Biden of U.S. is facing a challenge in trying to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal, after former President Trump unilaterally decided to discard it in 2018.
- Iran Nuclear Deal: The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal) was the result of prolonged negotiations between Iran and P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK, USA and EU) nations. It was quietly brokered by Oman in an attempt to repair its mistrust with Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The deal obliged Iran to limit its uranium enrichment programme which will be verified by an intrusive inspection regime. In return, US agreed to partially lift its economic sanctions on Iran. However this was not ratified in US Senate and was implemented through periodic executive orders to keep sanction waivers going. Later, Trump administration pulled out from the deal in May 2018 and exerted maximum pressure on Iran to renegotiate through its sanctions.
- Iran's response: For the first year after the U.S. withdrawal, Iran’s response was silent as E-3 (France, Germany, U.K.) and EU promised to find ways to mitigate the U.S. decision. When the E-3/EU plan failed to materialise, Iran shifted to a strategy of maximum resistance by shedding its strategic patience. It began to move away from JCPOA’s constraints incrementally- exceeding the ceilings of enriching uranium, stepping up R&D on advanced centrifuges etc. After the US strike on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Iran said that it would not commit to JCPOA’s restraints but it will maintain cooperation with IAEA.
- Response from USA: Trump adopted the "maximum pressure" tactic with Iran. US pushed ahead with its unilateral sanctions by widening the scope. It covered all Iranian banks which was connected to the global financial system, industries related to metallurgy, energy and shipping, senior political leaders etc. By end-2020, U.S. had imposed nearly 80 rounds of sanctions targeting close to 1,500 individuals and entities in Iran.
- Repercussions of these events: The U.S. decision was criticised by all other parties to the JCPOA as Iran was in compliance with its IAEA obligations. Trump’s policy comforted only Israel and Saudi Arabia but failed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. COVID-19 affected Iran badly & Iran’s economy contracted by 7% in 2019 and another 6% in 2020. Iran was also shaken by a series of unexplained fires and blasts at a number of sensitive sites- Natanz nuclear facility, Khojir- missile fuel fabrication unit. E-3’s promised relief Instrument –INSTEX- did not work well & EU-Iran trade got dropped in the following years. Hence Iranian Parliament passed a bill- seeking to increase nuclear enrichment by 20%, suspending the implementation of some inspection provisions for 2 months if sanctions relief is not given.
- America's road ahead: If the U.S. waits for Iran to fully comply before lifting its sanctions, it can only lead to the collapse of the JCPOA & Iran will go nuclear like North Korea. But the Biden administration has made a good start by appointing Robert Malley as the U.S. Special Envoy for Iran & positive steps are further required to create a conducive atmosphere. US can help in clearing the Iran’s applications to IMF for COVID-19 relief and for the supply of vaccines under the international COVAX facility. Iran can release of European and American nationals who are currently in its custody. All U.S. sanctions cannot be lifted instantly, it is possible to remove the sanctions on Iranian political leaders which would send a positive signal. The IAEA and E-3/EU should work together to reverse the steps taken by Iran to ensure full compliance with the JCPOA. Brussels now has the opportunity to take a lead role as an independent foreign policy actor.
- Knowledge centre:
- Iranian Revolution, 1979 - The Iranian Revolution (Enqelab-e Eslami) was a popular uprising in Iran in 1978–79 that resulted in the toppling of the monarchy on February 11, 1979, and establishment of an Islamic republic. The 1979 revolution brought together Iranians across many different social groups, inluding the clergy, landowners, intellectuals, and merchants. The United Kingdom had helped Reza Shah Pahlavi establish a monarchy in 1921. Along with Russia, the U.K. then pushed Reza Shah into exile in 1941, and his son Mohammad Reza Pahlavi took the throne. In 1953, amid a power struggle, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the U.K. Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) orchestrated a coup. Later, Mohammad Reza Shah dismissed the parliament and launched the White Revolution — an aggressive modernization program that upended the wealth and influence of landowners and clerics, disrupted rural economies, led to rapid urbanization and Westernization, and prompted concerns over democracy and human rights. The program was economically successful, but the benefits were not distributed evenly. Opposition rose in the 1970s, when world monetary instability and fluctuations in Western oil consumption seriously threatened the country’s economy. High rates of inflation and the stagnation of Iranians’ buying power and standard of living prompted a revolution in 1979.
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