RBI’s inflation targeting regime - no change is good

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  RBI’s inflation targeting regime - no change is good

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• April news: In April 2021, it emerged that for the sixth month in a row, the government collected over Rs 1 lakh crore as GST. Data showed that in March, India’s exports grew by almost 60%. But sadly, the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index ranked India at a lowly 140 out of 156 countries, highlighting the rapid slide of womenfolk in India. 
• RBI inflation targeting system: Now, the Central government has confirmed that India’s central bank, the RBI, will continue to target maintaining retail inflation within the band of 2% to 6%. It was expected that perhaps this system may be changed a bit.
• Details: This “inflation targeting” regime (called flexible inflation targeting) was put in place in 2016 for five years. Now in 2021, it has been renewed as it is for next five, i.e. for 2021=2026. The past 5 years were not smooth for the FIT system. This FIT was legislated into existence in 2016. (The other could be "Fixed Inflation Targeting")

1. RBI is the monetary policy authority for India, and being the lender of last resort as well as the regulator for the banking system, the RBI sets the benchmark for interest rates and credit growth. 
2. If the RBI sees that its job is to boost growth, then it can keep the interest rates lower while relaxing the regulations to enable quick and easy ways for the banking system to give out new loans. Cheaper loans will make it easier for firms and governments to borrow and spend/invest — thus boosting economic growth. 
3. But if the RBI sees that its main job is to maintain financial stability and control prices in the economy, then it would keep a tight leash on the interest rates and the norms determining the provisioning of new loans. That usually constrains economic growth.

• Criticism: Between 2016 and 2020, there were many times when the RBI’s single-minded focus on keeping retail inflation within the 4% +/- 2% band was blamed for interest rates being too high for businesses, and thus hurting India’s economic growth. Inflation targeting can justifiably be questioned on several counts. One can argue that instead of headline retail inflation, the RBI should focus on the retail core inflation rate, which is the inflation rate without taking into account the fluctuations in the prices of fuel and food items (volatile things). Since fuel and food prices often shoot up in the short-term due to temporary factors — say, excessive rains or some other supply disruption — it is best for the RBI to focus on core inflation (robust indicator of the rate of rise in prices). But some others can argue that the RBI should not be looking at retail inflation at all. Instead, it should look at wholesale inflation. 
• Why wholesale, not retail: Because RBI’s move to tweak interest rate affects the credit available to businesses, which, in turn, are affected by wholesale inflation, and not retail inflation. It can be argued that if retail prices of fruits and vegetables spike due to unseasonal rains, thus pushing up retail inflation, then raising interest rates — an action that would make it costlier for all manufacturing and services firms to get a loan — will not help matters anyway. To suppot this, the vast gap between the retail and wholesale inflation rates in recent years is pointed out.
• A new idea: Some say the RBI should neither use the wholesale nor retail inflation rate as targets. Instead, it should create a Producer Price Index — a more focussed inflation rate index to best suit RBI’s need. 
• The rate itself: Why should RBI maintain inflation at 4%? Why not 5%? Why should the range be between 2% and 6%? Why not wider or narrower? Each such decision would tweak the degrees of freedom the RBI has in terms of setting the credit policy in the economy. The opposition to inflation targeting regime was also from those who argued that the whole idea was inadvisable. For many, such a singular focus on maintaining price stability is a counter-productive choice for a developing economy such as India. (so there must have been a focus on growth)

1. So instead of being overly finicky about the inflation rate — wholesale or retail — the RBI should be working with the government towards ensuring fast economic growth. 
2. If that means reducing interest rates and relaxing lending norms so that borrowers (companies as well as governments) can borrow at easy terms then the RBI should just do it. 
3. By applying onerous prudential norms that are used in the West and prioritising price control, the RBI is hurting India’s growth potential. 

• Earlier RBI: India’s decelerating economic growth rate since the start of 2017 demotivated policymakers. It also mattered that in the past RBI never had an explicit mandate to target a particular level of inflation. India did avoid being as severely impacted by several global financial crises in the past. So the argument was: Inflation targeting is not the only way to be prudent about macro-financial stability.
• Pandmeic changes so much: Already, since the time current RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das took charge, there has been a clear shift in the RBI’s stance towards doing everything in its power to boost economic growth. This phase has largely coincided with the economic disruption due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the past 12 months, the RBI has either relaxed or suspended several regulatory norms to soften the blow of economic distress. But this is also a phase where the inflation rate has consistently stayed above RBI’s comfort zone. It is important to point out that a high inflation rate is the most regressive kind of tax — the poorest are hit the hardest.
• A bright new year: As India starts a new financial year, there is a tremendous and understandable urgency to grow fast and get back to the days of high GDP growth rate. But it is also true that in the months and year ahead, as banks start recognising bad loans or non-performing assets on their books, macro-financial stability will come into sharp focus. Moreover, with fuel prices staying high and another wave of Covid-induced lockdowns likely, supply bottlenecks could lead to inflation rates spiking again. It is a wise decision by the government to not ask the RBI to give up targeting retail inflation.

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