President Biden

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President Biden

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• The 46th President: Joe Biden has taken over as the 46th President of the USA, in a dangerously polarised environment. Society is torn from the middle, believing in not only different perceptions, but also different facts!
• Challenges: Biden will face the ravages of pandemic, a slowed economy, the China challenge, and domestic polarisation problem. His priorities have been declared as pandemic, economy, racism and climate change.
• Fraught transition: The 2020-21 transition has been marred by violence and hate, unlike earlier ones.

1. In 2008-09, Republican president George W Bush Jr. ensured full cooperation with incoming President Obama to ensure no surprises like 9/11 present themselves
2. In 2016-17, President Obama hosted incoming President Trump peacefully. 
3. In 2021, Trump decided not to be graceful at all, and did not even concede for a long time. 
4. Trump's unprecedented lies and aggression about a 'stolen election' has polarised his supporters, who rioted at the Capitol on 06th Jan, 2021

• The Senate majority: Since Biden won the senate 51-50, it becomes easier to get key appointments confirmed, and empower Democratic senators. But the slight reduction in Democratic majority in the House of Representatives shows the society's sharp division in US. Biden has to now prove he was worthy of liberal voters' support, while also seeking bipartisan support from the others!
• Initial blitz: All new administrations announce major steps to show energy and break from the past. Biden will go ahead and rejoin the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, and announce major steps on immigration, pandemic, etc. The Senate impeachment trial of Trump will hog limelight, though.
• Indian interests: India will be impacted to the extent that Biden handles internal frictions and projects a stable image globally. 

1. Afghanistan: Trump wanted to drawdown the troop strength, as US society had grown tired of the endless wars. Biden had supported it while he was the V.P. under Obama. Now Taliban are in a peace talk with Afghan Govt. at Doha, and whether US exits completely, or allows a firm peaceful transition, will be tested. 
2. Pakistan: It would want US to exit totally, so that it can control  Afghanistan via proxy Taliban. That would be bad for Indian interests.

• Biden on China: Since Dec 2017, Trump was very tough on China, and had adopted a "whole of government" approach. Every top official - President, VP, NSA, AG, FBI Dir, Secy of State - made coordinated announcements on China. 

1. Just two focused on cooperation and its benefits - Jared Kushner (son-in-law) and Treasury Secy Steven Mnuchin
2. Trump used the "whole of society" approach by addressing businesses, universities, governors, entertainment industry asking them to be wary of China and give up enticements

• Clash of values: China's authoritarian system under President Xi Jinping was seen as the opposite of US's democractic one, and its practices as predatory (stealing technological secrets, etc.). Its military posturing in South China sea and other places was seen as challenging a rules-based international order. Hence, many anti-China sanctions were placed on people, companies and institutions by Trump. Will Biden continue with those?
• Biden on China: He may not be as strident-sounding or aggressive, but would want to use methods that yield effective results. The earlier US hope that deeper engagement with China will lead to more democracy and liberalisation is now dead. Biden will benefit from the China problem as bipartisan support will come forth.
• The Indian relationship: Biden had called for removal of sanctions against India, and helped steer the nuclear deal in 2008, in the Senate. The new Secy of State Blinked had said that India has a high priority now.

1. What US chooses to do on the Iran JCPOA matter and the Russian CAATSA sanctions will decide the road forward.
2. On human rights and climate change, there will be differences.

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