Out Of The Closet

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Out Of The Closet

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  • India firmly with the US now: While serious talks with the US started in 1998 (Jaswant Singh and Strobe Talbott), October 2020 saw India signing the last of the 'foundational agreements' thereby sealing defence interoperability between US and India. It's all out in the open now, for the world to see.
  • China stand-off: The Indian border with China is witnessing a tense stand-off, and the defence deal with the US happened in the middle of it. There's a message. So now India is openly working with the US - new Quad, Malabar exercise with Australia too, a closer military embrace, and the visible 2+2 show.
  • Why now: India could've waited for the results of the US elections 2020, but still went ahead. The reason for that was the convergence of American policy with Indian interests - first on the issue of Indo-Pacific as a strategy, and second on tackling China as an enemy state. 
  • What Biden thinks of China: He is pragmatic, and feels that preventing China's rise is not in America's control, and the two economies are totally intertwined to decouple anytime soon. But the US, through its vast network of allies, can shape the environment in which China rises. But the China of 2020s loves to bare its teeth and fangs, unlike the cautious China till 2016!
  • What India will face: The liberal dispensation of Biden will ask some tough questions of India on human rights and minority issues. Even Trump wasn't kind to India on trade issues. But largely, Biden is a centrist. For his team, deepening the relationship with India remains important. 
  • Walking with a superpower: No country has ever found walking with a superpower easy, and India won't either. The S-400 delivery is due in 2021, and the US Congress will then decide if CAATSA sanctions need to be imposed on India. In parallel, Russia and China are coming ever closer, and may have a military alliance soon.
  • A new angle: It is also seemingly visible that both the US and Russia may be working towars a new 21st century arms control agreement, and may bring China along. In that case, India cannot keep itself aloof.
  • The bitter lesson: The real lesson India seems to have learnt is that its rise is not destined, but will have to be earned. And till that happens, aligning with the US may not be a bad choice.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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