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Monsoon 2021 - IMD’s first-stage forecast
Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment
- The story: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first-stage forecast for the south-west monsoon for 2021. It suggests that monsoon in 2021 may not be as bountiful as in last year; it does however offers some hope. The forecast for the south-west monsoon indicates that the quantum of rainfall is likely to be at 98% of the long period average. It estimates a 61% probability of the country ending up with normal or excess rains. It expected rainfall at 100% of the long period average with a 70% probability of normal to excess rains.
- A rare situation: If monsoon rains are normal in 2021, then this would be third straight normal year, a rarity last seen more than a century ago.
- Stay cautious: A normal monsoon this year is obviously welcome as it could help agriculture GDP expand for the third consecutive year. These preliminary forecasts cannot, however, be taken for the good prospects for the farm economy. IMD’s first-stage long-range forecast is generally too early to capture the evolving impact of phenomena such as the ENSO and IOD.
- ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation; IOD - Indian Ocean Dipole. These have proved to be critical swing factors influencing south-west monsoon performances in the past.
- IMD expects 2021's monsoon to be less generous than last year’s. While neutral conditions now prevail on both the ENSO and IOD, IMD is watchful on negative IOD conditions developing as the season progresses. In 2020, it was an unfolding La Nina that led to rainfall eventually exceeding IMD’s estimates at 109% of the long-term average. Also, IMD has been improving its record at foreseeing normal and excess monsoon years.
- It has tended to over-estimate rainfall in drought years such as 2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015. On this score, its second-stage forecast in June, factoring in evolving weather conditions, is somewhat more reliable. There is also the fact that three consecutive normal monsoon years have been quite rare for India.
- Changes afoot: The monsoon is no longer adhering to its historical patterns, leading to increasing demand from farmers and policymakers for more granular forecasts on its spatial and temporal spread. Keeping that in mind, the IMD introduced the new dynamical Multi-Modal Ensemble forecasting system in 2021. This will not just provide month-wise break-ups but also focus on rain-fed agricultural regions. While the IMD is improving its forecasting abilities, the Centre and State governments are yet to properly use this valuable data.
- Use of data: They should use the data to - (i) appropriately guide cropping patterns, (ii) correctly estimate the demand-supply equation for essential crops, (iii) set trade policies, and (iv) achieve a better state of disaster-preparedness against floods and famines that devastate individual districts every year.
- Knowledge centre:
- Crop seasons and monsoon - An off-balance monsoon season spells doom for the agricultural sector in India. While more than normal rain floods the kharif farms and results in serious crop damage or loss, it helps the rabi season by ensuring the reservoirs have enough water. Poor monsoon, on the other hand, means drought and crop loss in the kharif season that affects next cycle and year’s uptake too, and poor water reserve for rabi crops makes its future uncertain. Policymakers must devise ways to reduce the impact of monsoon on the growth of the agrochemical sector. Making agriculture climate resilient is the most critical step. Several measures can be taken to ensure this, including enhanced carbon sink in soils, precision farming that enables farmers to make accurate decisions on the need, and application of agricultural inputs regarding soil, weather, and crop, access to market intelligence for timely decision, and efficient use of water and energy.
- Acreage of irrigated land - Improving coverage of irrigated land and increasing their share as compared to exclusively rain-fed ones can help in continuing farmers sow crops at regular intervals. Besides, research has found that insecticides applied through a drip irrigation system can reduce the number of foliar insecticide sprays, which in turn, reduces the risk to non-target species. It is a more common practice among vegetable growers as many of them already use drip irrigation for water management and can add an injection pump and the required safety equipment to inject the soluble pesticides.
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