Looking ahead after the Ladakh walk back

Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!

Looking ahead after the Ladakh walk back

---

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

---

• Finally, breakthrough: China announced the start of disengagement of both armies - the PLA and Indian Army - from Ladakh, in Feb 2021. The Indian defence minister confirmed it in Parliament thereafter, but this is not the end of the Himalayan standoff that started in April 2020. This is seeking of peace on LAC and not seeking of "status quo ante" as of April 2020 (by Indian government). 
• Exact scene: This disengagement is restricted to two places on the Ladakh LAC (Line of Actual Control) - north bank of Pangong lake, and Kailash range on south bank. 

1. Three other contentious sites on the Ladakh border where PLA came in - Depsang, Gogra-Hot Springs, Demchok - are still not resolved
2. The north bank of Pangong has limited importance, but is a popular tourist spot (due to "3 Idiots" movie)
3. There are habitations in the vicinity of north bank that observe Chinese movements easily, and many had reported to the media how Chinese came in (much to the govt's embarrassment, who tried hiding it)
4. So north bank disengagement was a political priority (so tourists don't see any Chinese). And on Kailash ranges, Indian presence was heavy and had surprised the Chinese.

• Changed approach: India had an advantage due to occupying Kailash range heights, and Chinese wanted disengagement there first due to risk of huge escalation, accidentally. India resisted, asking for entire disengagement all across. But now, suddenly the govt. has accepted the demand without comprehensive disengagement all across the LAC.
• Depsang plains: Indian Army knows how crucial the Depsang Plains region is, in the DBO sector (Daulat Beg Oldi), being close to the border infrastructure (DSDBO road) and also helping in control the Siachen glacier. The problem here continues, and is unresolved. A China-Pakistan collusion here would be trouble. A logic given is that Depsang problem exists since many years, but that's not the reason to not include it in current resolution!
• No Patrol zone: Indian policymakers want a no patrol zone on LAC. So now there's a buffer zone in north bank of Pangong. There was a similar one in Galwan in July 2020, and then the deadly clash happened (20 soldiers died). That buffer zone is still holding, but denies India access to its own areas. The worry is that newer buffer zones may similarly deny India access to its own territory, turning it into neutral zones.
• No solution: Buffer zones aren't a final solution, and only a mutual delineation of LAC will work out towards final settlement. As of now, no "no patrol zone" for Kailash range is announced.
• A threat: The PLA experts in Chinese media have stated that the speed of withdrawal of PLA (in one day) should be a good warning that they can reassemble equally fast. Sadly, India lacks the political will and military hardware to really drive the Chinese out. The power differential is so huge now that India can, at best, deploy enough troops to prevent new ingress. The other option is Indian Army entering Chinese territory and doing a quid pro quo military operation, which carries enormous risks for an India in recession.
• What of the Quad: The 2020 crisis has changed India's entire calculations. Indian Army's deployment all along the LAC will now rise, from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh. That will take resources away from maritime domain. The Quad commitments will cry for more attention then. But with this new deal, India's love for Quad may wither. 
• Summary: This dumping of status quo ante as of April 2020 means there will be deep strategic fallouts in coming years.

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

Join UPSC Self Prep course | Online Course (PT Gurukul)  | Covid Special Course | Join PT courses

* Content sourced from free internet sources (publications, PIB site, international sites, etc.). Take your own subscriptions. Copyrights acknowledged.